Tamil Nadu Elections Survey: TVK To Defeat DMK, AIADMK; Will Vijay Become The Next CM?

A recent opinion poll by an agency predicts that actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) will emerge as the single largest party, thereby defeating the Dravidian majors DMK and AIADMK.

The survey, conducted by Poll Mithra, was out last month, but the report is going viral only now as the supporters of TVK are now sharing the results on social media sites.

Here Are The Findings Of The Survey

As per the survey, the TVK is set to win 95-105 seats with a vote share of 34.55 per cent. The ruling DMK alliance is predicted to get 75-85 seats with a vote share of 30.20 per cent. The AIADMK alliance is likely to win 55-65 with a vote share of 27.85 per cent.

Whereas Seeman's Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) and others are expected to bag 5-10 seats with a vote share of 4.40 per cent.

The DMK-Congress alliance won 159 seats out of 234 seats with 46% vote share while the AIADMK alliance was reduced to 75 seats in the 2021 Assembly polls.

It was an election the DMK and the AIADMK contested without their towering leaders, J Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi whose deaths brought a huge change in the political landscape.

As per the poll survey, the key issues driving Tamil Nadu are:

1. Women Safety: 27.3%
2. Liquor & Drug Menace: 21.8%
3. Unemployment: 17.6%
4. Corruption: 14.2%
5. Language/Cultural Identity: 9.5%
6. Inflation & Daily Prices: 6.4%
7. Other Issues: 3.2%

Gender Wise Voting Trends

Women Voters:
TVK: 42.5%
AIADMK+: 28.2%
DMK+: 26.6%

Men Voters:
TVK: 33.7%
DMK+: 31.4%
AIADMK+: 29.6%

Key Pointers

• Youth & women voters swinging towards Vijay
• Anti-incumbency wave visible in urban DMK pockets
• NTK remains a minor disruptor, especially in South TN
• Voter mood tilting towards fresh leadership

TVK dominates Gen Z & Millennial voters, while seniors remain with traditional parties.

41-60 yers:
→ DMK+: 33.4%
→ AIADMK+: 31.1%
→ TVK: 30.2%

60+ yrs:
→ AIADMK+: 38.8%
→ DMK+: 32.1%
→ TVK: 22.4%

If the findings of the survey come true, the TVK cannot form the government on its own as 118 is the majority mark. In this case, Vijay needs support from other parties. Going by the above figures, Vijay can become the Chief Minister only if the AIADMK joins hands.