Tamil Nadu Elections Survey: Not DMK or AIADMK, TN Heads For Hung Assembly, Claims Vote Vibe Exit Poll

Updated: Thursday, April 30, 2026, 8:20 [IST]

The political landscape of Tamil Nadu appears headed for a dramatic shake-up, according to the latest exit poll conducted by Vote Vibe. Released late Tuesday evening, the survey projects a hung assembly with the opposition AIADMK-led alliance surging ahead of the ruling DMK+, but falling short of a majority on its own.

Vote Vibe's comprehensive analysis gives the AIADMK+ a seat range of 114 to 124, with a mid-point of 119. The ruling DMK+ alliance is projected to secure between 103 and 113 seats (mid-point 108), while the newly formed TVK is predicted to win between 4 and 7 seats. With the total seats in the assembly standing at 234, a party or alliance needs 118 seats for a simple majority.

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Vote Vibe's exit poll projects a hung assembly in Tamil Nadu, predicting the AIADMK-led alliance 114-124 seats and the ruling DMK+ 103-113 seats, neither reaching the 118 required for a majority. The TVK is forecast to win 4-7 seats, potentially influencing government formation.

Tamil Nadu Elections Survey Not DMK or AIADMK TN Heads For Hung Assembly

The regional breakdown reveals a clear geographical polarization. The AIADMK+ is showing a "significant lead" in the crucial North and West regions. In the 52-seat North zone, the AIADMK+ is projected to win 32-34 seats, compared to the DMK+'s 18-20. Similarly, in the 50-seat Western belt, the opposition alliance is dominating with 33-35 seats against the ruling party's 14-16.

However, the DMK+ maintains a "strong hold" in the South, Delta, and the Kongu Tamil Makkal Katchi (KTCC) region. In the 58-seat South, the ruling alliance is projected to win 32-34 seats, while the AIADMK+ trails with 23-25. The DMK+ also leads in the 37-seat Delta region (20-21 seats) and the 37-seat KTCC region (19-21 seats).

Party / Alliance	Range	Mid-Point
AIADMK+	114 - 124	119
DMK+	103 - 113	108
TVK	4 - 10	7
TOTAL		234

The impact of the TVK, led by popular actor-turned-politician, appears minimal except in the KTCC region, where it is projected to win 3-5 seats, potentially acting as a spoiler.

Region	Total Seats	AIADMK+	DMK+	TVK
KTCC	37	12 - 14	19 - 21	3 - 5
NORTH	52	32 - 34	18 - 20	0
WEST	50	33 - 35	14 - 16	0 - 2
DELTA	37	14 - 16	20 - 21	0 - 2
SOUTH	58	23 - 25	32 - 34	0 - 2
TOTAL	234	114 - 124	103 - 113	4 - 10

Political analysts note that while the AIADMK+ is ahead, the projected numbers suggest a tight contest where smaller parties and independents could become kingmakers. "If these numbers hold, neither major front crosses the finish line alone," said political commentator Meena Krishnan. "The TVK's 4-7 seats, particularly in KTCC, could become decisive in government formation." Official election results are expected later this week.