RBI MPC Meeting: Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra Keeps Repo Rate Unchanged at 5.25%

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee keeps the policy repo rate steady at 5.25 percent on April 8. All six members vote for no change. The panel also maintains its policy stance as “Neutral”, extending the position held in the February monetary policy review.

With this decision, the standing deposit facility rate stays at 5 percent. The marginal standing facility rate and the Bank Rate remain fixed at 5.5 percent. Market participants now focus on guidance for FY27, especially after the conflict in West Asia heightens global uncertainty.

RBI repo rate, GDP and inflation outlook by MPC for FY27

The status quo on rates follows the committee’s earlier move in February, when the RBI also held policy settings unchanged. That continuity signals the central bank’s preference to monitor growth and inflation trends from the new GDP and CPI series released in February before shifting its stance.

A poll by Moneycontrol shows most analysts expect the RBI MPC to leave the repo rate unchanged. The same poll highlights that commentary for FY27 will matter more than the rate outcome. Economists watch how the RBI balances potential inflation risks with the need to support economic activity.

RBI repo rate, GDP and inflation outlook in detailed projections for FY27

The RBI presents fresh projections for GDP under the updated national accounts. The central bank states that gross domestic product growth for FY27 is expected at XX percent, compared with 7.4 percent projected for FY26. This marks the first full-year growth forecast since the new GDP series release in February.

In one projection set, the RBI MPC revises real GDP growth for Q1 FY27 to XX percent, from 6.9 percent earlier. The Q2 FY27 real GDP estimate is placed at XX percent, versus the earlier 7 percent forecast. These estimates draw on updated data from the new series.

A separate projection set keeps some quarterly GDP forecasts unchanged. Here, the RBI MPC continues to see real GDP growth at 6.9 percent for Q1 FY27. The Q2 FY27 projection stands at 7 percent. Q3 and Q4 FY27 GDP growth are estimated at XX percent and XX percent respectively.

The RBI also releases inflation projections using the new CPI series for the first time. In one scenario, the central bank expects average inflation for FY27 at XX percent. The Q1 FY27 inflation forecast is raised to XX percent, against 4 percent earlier. Q2 inflation is projected at XX percent, from 4.2 percent previously.

Under another inflation path, the RBI indicates that FY27 inflation is projected at XX percent. Within this set, Q1 FY27 inflation is placed at 4 percent and Q2 at 4.2 percent. For both scenarios, CPI inflation in Q3 and Q4 FY27 is projected at XX percent and XX percent respectively.

The combination of an unchanged repo rate, a “Neutral” stance, and detailed projections for growth and inflation suggests the RBI prefers stability while assessing new data. Markets, businesses, and households will now track how FY27 numbers evolve against these benchmarks in the months ahead.

Following the RBI MPC's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged, Saurabh Jain, Co-founder and CEO of Stable Money, termed the move as a "welcome step" amid ongoing market volatility and global uncertainty. He noted that the decision brings much-needed stability and strengthens investor confidence in fixed-income instruments. Jain highlighted a visible shift among investors towards safer avenues such as fixed deposits and bonds in search of predictable returns. He added that while existing investors should stay invested, the current environment also offers a timely opportunity for others to increase their allocation to fixed income and better balance overall portfolio risk.