2014 polls survey: Cong stares at poor show in 8 big states

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Bangalore, July 27: The Congress is in a real danger of facing a humiliation in the next Lok Sabha elections. According to a joint poll survey of CNN-IBN and The Hindu, the Congress is set to face serious adverses in eight of the ten most crucial states in the country in terms of electoral results.

In West Bengal, which has 42 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress is expected to get 5-9 seats, which is much mess than the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Left Front, which are expected to get 23-27 and 7-11 seats. In 2009, the TMC and Congress alliance had won 26 seats.

In Bihar, the Congress is set to do even worse. As against the JD(U) projected seat between 15-19 seats (out of 40 seats), the Congress is expected to get 0-4 seats. The BJP and RJD will have a close fight for the second spot.

The only gain for the Congress is set to be Karnataka where it came to power in May this year. Out of 28 Lok Sabha seats, the party is expected to bag 18-22 while the BJP, which faced a massive defeat in the assembly polls this year, could win just 2-6 seats. The JD(S) is also likely to get 2-6 seats.

Andhra Pradesh perhaps present the biggest challenge to the Congress. The party had done good in this state in 2009 (it had won 33 out of 42 seats) but the poll survey says that its tally could come down drastically to just 11-15. The YSR Congress could win 11-15 seats, TDP 6-10 seats while the TRS 5-9 seats. Whether Telangana will be formed or not or whether it can change the party's fate is for time to tell.

In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK is set to be the runaway winner with 16-20 seats (out of 39) while the DMK is expected to get 8-12 seats. The Congress's tally is likely to be 1-5 seats.

The Congress is set to face a landslide in Gujarat where Narendra Modi's BJP is expected to win 20-24 of the 26 seats. The party, in a big decline from what it was in 2009, is likely to get between two to six seats.

In the UP, electorally the most crucial state in India with 80 seats, the Congress will get just 11-15 seats, predicted the poll. In the 2009 elections, the party got 21 seats. The BJP is expected to get between 29-33 seats, which will be a big jump from its previous tally of 10. The ruling Samajwadi Party is likely to get between 17-21 seats while the Bahujan Samaj Party is predicted to win 14-18 seats.

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The Congress is also set to face a drubbing in Madhya Pradesh, where it is expected to win just 2-6 seats out of 29. Opposition BJP is likely to finish with 21-25 seats. In Rajasthan, the poll predicts 10-14 seats for both the national parties, although the figure suggests a big decline for the Congress. In 2009, it had won 20 out of 25 seats in the state as against the BJP's four.

The results in Maharashtra are not likely to change much. The Congress and its allies are expected to win 23-27 seats (out of 48) while the BJP and its allies are likely to get 18-22 seats. The MNS could be a decisive factor in the state, the poll said.

The above mentioned states have 399 Lok Sabha seats in total. In 2009, the Congress and its allies got 164 out of those 399 seats. In the next general polls, their tally is expected to touch 123 at the most (the party is no more in alliance with the TMC and DMK) in those states.

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