Be prepared for warmer years after 2009

New Delhi, Aug 10: At least half of the years in the decade following 2009 will be warmer than the warmest year on record which is 1998, say UK climate scientists.

Over the 10-year period as a whole, climate continues to warm and 2014 is likely to be 0.3 degrees C warmer than 2004, they said. It may be pointed out that the total global warming on a decadal average is 0.8 degrees since 1900, according to the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change.

The scientists at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre unveiled the first decadal climate prediction model in a paper published today in the journal Science, the British High Commission said here.

The paper includes the Met Office's prediction for annual global temperature to 2014.

According to their model, at least half of the years after 2009 are predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.

These predictions are very relevant to businesses and policy-makers who will be able to respond to short-term climate change when making decisions today.

The new model incorporates the effects of sea surface temperatures as well as other factors such as man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, projected changes in the sun's output and the effects of previous volcanic eruptions - the first time internal and external variability have both been predicted.

Team leader, Dr Doug Smith said: "Occurrences of El Nino, for example, have a significant effect on shorter-term predictions. By including such internal variability, we have shown a substantial improvement in predictions of surface temperature." He said observed relative cooling in the Southern Ocean and tropical Pacific over the last couple of years was correctly predicted by the new system, giving us greater confidence in the model's performance."

UNI