FAO forecasts record world cereal production in 2007

New Delhi, May 16 (UNI) In a tentative forecast, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) today said that the world cereal production in 2007 is on track to reach a record level of 2,095 million tonnes, a rise of 4.8 per cent over 2006 levels.

The report also predicts 2007 cereal output to be similar to last year's good level. However, excluding China and India, the largest producers, the aggregate crop of the remaining countries is forecast to decline slightly.

But with stocks at their lowest level in over two decades, total supplies would still be barely adequate to meet increased demand, boosted by the fast-growing biofuels industry, it added.

International prices for most cereals have risen significantly in 2006-07 so far and are likely to remain high in 2007-08, according to FAO's latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report.

As a result, the cereal import bill of the low-income food deficit countries (LIFDCs) is forecast to increase by about one-quarter in the current season.

The early forecast for coarse grains production in 2007 has been revised upward to around 1,051 million tonnes, 7.1 per cent up from last year and a record high, according to the report.

The bulk of the increase is expected in maize, which accounts for about 70 per cent of the total.

Fast growth in demand for maize-based ethanol production is expected to boost total industrial use of coarse grains in 2007/08 by 9 per cent, the report said.

Expectations for the world wheat harvest are down slightly since FAO's April forecast, but at just below 621 million tonnes, production is still expected to be 4 per cent above the previous year's level.

FAO's early and very tentative forecast for world rice production in 2007 points to a slightly larger crop at some 422 million tonnes, which would match the 2005 record.

Despite improved food supply in many of the countries normally most at risk from food insecurity, following record or bumper 2006 cereal crops, food difficulties persist in 33 countries worldwide.

FAO further mentioned emergency assistance is required for large numbers of vulnerable farmers in Bolivia affected by serious crop and livestock losses following drought and floods during the 2007 main cropping season.

UNI