Developed world worried over developing world

New Delhi, May 13: Even as United States remains the top pollutor of atmosphere, the focus of concern of the developed world remains on India and China - the two fast-growing economies with enormous need for energy to sustain their growth in the coming years.

India's current per capita greenhouse gas emissions at around 1.1 tonne is almost 20 times less than that of United States' and four times less than China's level of emissions, according to a study.

But Standard and Poor's analysis says if all announced coal-fired power plants are built in China and India, additional carbon dioxide emissions could be multiples of the overall cuts proposed by the Kyoto protocol and would vitiate any efforts to control atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide to 500 parts per million.

China and India, who, unlike the United States, have ratified the Kyoto protocol, are not obligated to reduce their emissions of carbon and other greenhouse gases because the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change does not mandate them to do so as they are not included in the category of industrialised countries.

United States, which is the worst emitter responsible for almost a quarter of the world's carbon emissions, on the other hand, pulled out of the treaty in 2001, saying implementing it would gravely damage the US economy. It dubbed the treaty "fatally flawed", partly because it does not require developing countries ( read China and India) to commit to emissions reductions.

India contends that uncompensated mitigation by developing countries would slow its economic growth and poverty-reduction efforts, and wants developed countries to explicitly address these issues before it will commit to reducing emissions. Opinion on this subject is clearly divided. Many energy advocacy groups favour binding commitments by developing countries as a requirement for the US to enact legislation. However, other groups think that as the largest emitter, the US should lead the efort on climate change and the participation of developing countries must come later.

Kyoto Protocol came into force on 16 February 2005, 90 days after Russia signed the treaty on 18 November 2004.

In 2004,China was number two and India was number five on the list of the largest carbon dioxide emitters from the use of fossil fuels, the study says, coal consumption in China and India is forecast to increase by three per cent year between 2006 and 2030 compared with an increase of 0.6 per cent year for all (OECD).

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries.

Continued dependence on coal for electricity generation also means that both countries would continue to have the highest levels for carbon intensity in Asia.

Per capita carbon dioxide emission in China is currently well below levels in developed countries. However, this has been rising fast with economic development. With China accounting for one-fifth of the world's population, the level at which its per capita emmissions ultimately stabilise will be a key determinant of future global carbon diaoxide emissions. If this turns out to be anywhere near current US levels, no amount of effort by the rest of the world will be able to cap global emisssions at 7 gigatons of carbon dioxide emissions, SAP's analysts Aneesh Prabhu and Kiming Tan say, adding such a cap may be unattainable if current trends persist.

One giga tonne is one million metric tonnes.

International Energy Agency's (IEA) expects China to overtake the U.S. as the world's largest carbon emitter by 2009. But Chinese estimates put this date five to 10 years further down the road. With abundant coal reserves, India, like China, relies heavily on coal for electricity, accounting for more than 60 per cent of installed capacity and 70 per cent of total generation.

Continuing reliance on coal for economic growth will mean that India's carbon emissions will rise at a similar rate to China's, the study claims. Much of this growth will come from the Indian government's plans to add about one lakh megawatt (MW) to the country's existing installed capacity of about 1.40 lakh MW to meet its goal of "power for all" by 2012.

To meet this target, the government has proposed at least seven coal-fired "ultra-megapower" projects. These projects, each with about 4,000 MW of capacity, could also see further expansion. Two projects have already awarded to sponsors and plans for three more being rolled out and awarded by the end of 2007. Substantial capacity is expected to come online by 2012.

The Indian government has, however, taken measures to reduce emissions and to move towards a more secure and sustainable energy supply. These include the National Autofuel policy, which mandates cleaner fuels for vehicles and the introduction of compressed natural gas (CNG) for public and private transport in metropolitan areas. The programme envisages a phased introduction of the European Union's stringent Euro 2, 3, and-4 regulations for gasoline-fueled cars and fuel regulation. Eleven major cities adopted the programme in 2005 and it will go nationwide by 2010. The programme also incorporates a major biodiesel initiative that includes a five per cent blending of ethanol in gasoline.

Another major initiative is the Electricity Act, which encourages the use of renewables. This effort includes quadrupling the installed wind generation base and adding 50,000 MW of hydropower, to be accomplished, in part, by 2012.

While stating that China and India have adopted and proposed a number of initiatives and programmes to combat climate change, S&P analysts are, however, concerned that coal-fired power generation still remains the cheapest, but dirtiest, source of energy for these countries - and the most widely used. The extent to which these rapidly developing nations will be able to shift away from coal-fired generation towards low-carbon energy investments is crucial to reducing greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.

It is estimated that carbon in atomsphere has increased from 578 giga tonnes in 1700 to 766 giga tonnes in 1999 and continues to increase at the rate of 6.1 giga tonne per year.

UNI