Politics art of the impossible: UP's next testing ground

Lucknow, May 10 (UNI) Politics is the art of the impossible -- the underlying principle in this era of coalition politics is fuelling the speculation in political and bureaucratic circles of Uttar Pradesh about the likely outcome of the assembly polls.

Will it be the BJP aligning with the SP, the BSP forming government with the Congress support, a BSP-BJP government or the Central rule? Everyone is asking.

All political combinations and permutations are being discussed, with leaders of almost all the political parties in the state having resigned to the fact that a truncated mandate for the next assembly awaits the state as the counting of votes starts tomorrow.

With no probability of a single party getting to the magic figure of 202 in the 403 member UP assmebly, the political leaders went into a huddle with their colleagues and leaders of the other parties to evolve a formula of the next government formation in the state.

The various political parties, who had been claiming their respective majority, are fast to change their posturing after the seven-phase assembly polls ended on May 8. The coalition politics in the recent times has witnessed some strange combinations getting to the power summit and the 15th UP assmebly seems to be no exception, political observers feel.

Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party, which has been universally accepted as the leader in the assembly polls, is also feeling a pinch of being agonisingly short of the required number to form its government. The BSP,which has formed the government with the support of the Bharatiya Janata Party thrice in the past, is likley to find its new partner in the Congress this time.

The most bizzare combination at the moment arising out of the rumour mills is the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party extending support to the BJP to form government in the state.The BJP leadership, often being accused of going soft on the SP, denies the reports but as the BJP Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu puts: ''Let us see, what emerges on May 11, the counting day,'' looks like a loaded statement.

The Congress, on its revival path in the state, has never hoped to get sufficient numbers to form the government but would certainly content with having adequate numbers to extend support to the BSP.

The Congress leadership, in fact, is the first to indicate support to the BSP when Union Home Minister of State Sriprakash Jaiswal did not rule out support to the party.

A senior BSP leader said that in case of the party getting short of some seats, then there is a possibility of taking support from the smaller parties and Independents. ''But if a large chunk of MLAs are required then the party might have to rethink about its strategy'', the leader said while hinting that the Congress is closer to the BSP than the BJP this time.

The term of the present 14th assembly expires on the midnight of May 13 and there will be hardly two days for the political parties to complete their hobnobbing for formation of the government after results are out tomorrow With Presidential polls due in July, it will be a serious test for all the political parties to avert the President's rule so that the strong UP electoral college can dictate terms for the Presidential candidate.

This would be for the second time this year when the state is on the verge of imposition of President's rule after the January- February political impasse in the state when the United Progressive Alliance(UPA) government at the centre was divided on the use of Article 356 of the Constitution against the Mulayam Singh Yadav government after the Supreme Court's verdict on the 40 defected MLAs of the BSP.

The results of UP assembly polls and formation of the government will have a direct impact on the UPA government at the centre and the preparation for the two national parties--BJP and Congress-- for the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.

On the other hand ruling Samajwadi Party will try its best to form the government but the leaders have denied the possibilities of taking any support from the BJP.

Earlier, a statement from suspended Congress leader Natwar Singh, who is campaigning for the SP, saying that no one is untouchable in UP politics and SP-BJP can join hands to form the government, has given a new twist to the political equation in the caste and communal ridden state.

Janata Dal(U) supremo Sharad Yadav talking to UNI reiterated that the BJP alliance would prefer to sit in the Opposition rather than joining hands with any other party.

''We want re-elections in UP, like done in Bihar after imposition of Presidents' rule'', he said giving another speculation of the BJP not interested in joining any post poll alliance before the next Lok Sabha polls due in 2009.

UNI