UP poll outome may throw up difficult choices for leading players

New Delhi, Feb 25 (UNI) The country's most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, where electoral fate of political parties largely determines the complexion of the government at the Centre, will be going to Assembly polls this time with major players more unsure of their prospects than ever.

The outcome of Assembly elections is also going to have a significant effect on the national politics in many ways.

The political composition of the state Assembly will affect the prospects of candidates in the coming Presidential elections. The results of Assembly polls will also impact Congress' equation with the Left and indicate whether a viable Third Front was going to be a reality.

According to political analysts, in the present scenario again, the outcome would most likely be a hung Assembly.

If Rahul Gandhi's focus on the state is able to bring about any improvement in the position of the Congress, it will be a loss, mostly of minority votes, to the ruling Samajwadi Party.

On the other hand, if former Prime Minister VP Singh-led Jana Morcha makes any impact, it may eat into the Congress vote too.

The BJP, which seemd to be recovering some of the ground after backward leader from Western Uttar Pradesh Kalyan Singh returned to the party and state leader Rajnath Singh donned the mantle of party president at the Centre, may see a chunk of its votes going to the newly created Bharatiya Jana Shakti party, led by Uma Bharti.

Anyway, the improvement in the position of the Congress and the BJP as indicated by the results of the recent civic elections in the state must be a cause of worry to the SP.

BJP won mayoral seats in Lucknow, Agra, Ghaziabad, Aligarh, Varanasi, Gorakhpur, Meerut and Kanpur, while Congress, hardly considered a force in UP, also improved from its last time's performance winning three mayoral seats at Allahabad, Jhansi and Bareilly.

SP had the lone seat in Moradabad by a slender margin of 1,800 votes. It, however, outdid both the BJP and the Congress in Nagar Panchayats and Nagar Palikas. Out of total of 417 Nagar Panchayat and 194 Nagar Palikas, the SP has been ahead of other parties.

However, the high number of Independents who got better of the SP in Nagar panchayats were supported by the BSP, which had not directly participated in the civic elections.

The performance of the Congress was going to determine whether the BSP, the runnerup in the last Assembly elections would shake hands with it or with the BJP.

The SP and the BSP can form government either with the support of the Congress or the BJP.

As of now, BSP supremo Mayawati's first preference would be for the Congress, which is hostile to Mulayam Singh Yadav. But if the Congress fails to gain sufficient seats, BSP would have to shake hands with the BJP as a last choice to form government.

The post-poll situation may throw up a most difficult choice for the SP, which having lost all friends in the state, would have a choice only in the BJP, a scenario that would be a blow to its image as a secular party that has never compromised with the communal forces.

The elections to the 403 steas in the state will be staggered over a month beginning from April 7 to May 8-- April 7, 13, 18, 23, 28 and May 3 and 8.

Byelections to three Lok Sabha seats -- Robertsganj, Mirzapur and Bilhour -- will also be held on the day their respective assembly segment go for polls.

Counting of votes would be taken up on May 11.

UNI