India's crude oil imports to climb 85% by 2012

New Delhi, Feb 12 (UNI) With the growing demand of energy, India's domestic crude oil imports will increase by 85 per cent by 2012 from the current level of 70 per cent, while its refining capacity will increase by 58 per cent to touch 235 million tonnes over the next five years from 59 million tonnes presently.

In a paper on Future Imperatives of crude oil scenario, industry body Assocham today said oil would continue to hold an important position as the preferred fuel in the long term.

''Our energy demand in future will multiply and rise to the level of 12-13 per cent compared to 7-8 per cent now,'' it said.

It said country's dependence on crude oil will increase as domestic discoveries have not been taking place, and despite having the alternate sources of energy, their harnessing is becoming a problem.

''It is true that refining capacities will also register a manifold increase but for that we need a crude oil which is a scarce commodity now and will continue to be so in the future too,'' it said.

At present, refining capacities stand at 148.97 million tonnes.

However, some of the projects that are likely to be commissioned during the 11th plan are Reliance Petroleum, 29 million tonnes at the Jamnagar SEZ, IOC's 15 million tonnes refinery coming up in Orissa, HPCL 9 million tonnes refinery in Bhatinda, Punjab and BPCL's 6 million tonnes, refinery again in Punjab.

Exports of petroleum products have been rising significantly since financial year 2005. During FY2005, India exports of petroleum products recorded a growth of 96 per cent.

In 2006, petroleum and crude oil products (POL) exports were worth 11.5 billion dollars, employing a growth of 65 per cent.

High economic growth prospects especially in China and India will ensure significantly higher international oil prices.

In FY05 and 2006, India's POL import bill has been growing at an average 46 per cent per annum.

POL imports which accounts for 28 per cent of total imports, recorded a 47 per cent jump in value terms during fiscal year 2006, compared with fiscal year 2005, while in volume terms the growth was just 33 per cent.

The one factor contributing to this rise has been the international crude prices which begun ascending in late 2003.

The Indian basket of crude oil rose from less than 28 dollars a barrel in financial year 2004-05 to 55 dollars per barrel in financial year 2005-06 and 67 dollars per barrel in first half of fiscal 2006-07.

UNI