Baghdad plan to last at least 6 months-sources

BAGHDAD, Jan 15 (Reuters) A major new US-backed security plan for Baghdad should last for at least six months, senior Iraqi political sources said, adding that if it failed to curb militia violence they feared the government would collapse.

One said he expected to see operations beginning next week and lasting for about seven months.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and US President George W Bush have announced plans to add thousands of Iraqi and US troops in the capital to smother sectarian violence that is pitching Iraq towards all-out civil war.

Bush has said the operation will ''in large part determine the outcome in Iraq'' and senior Iraqi officials from the Shi'ite Islamist majority dominating the government said they believed it was a ''last chance'' that needed thorough implementation.

''The key element of this plan will be the time. The troops will take their time, actually all the time they need to clean an area,'' said one senior politician, speaking late yesterday.

''The plan will last at least for six months.'' A previous attempt to clear militants, district by district, failed last summer because, US commanders said, there was a shortage of Iraqi troops to hold gains made by the Americans and because Shi'ite politicians prevented them arresting or killing leading Shi'ite militants.

''The final touches are being put out now on the plan,'' another senior politician told Reuters, forecasting a start next week.

The political sources said that there were only some logistics to finalise, such as bringing additional troops into Baghdad and also getting political cover -- ensuring the broadest possible support for the operation, including from radical Shi'ite leaders like young cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

Government leaders have also been visiting the top Shi'ite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, to ensure his backing.

''LAST CHANCE'' US commanders and Iraq's once dominant Sunni minority have made clear they want any crackdown to include not just Sunni rebels but militias loyal to powerful Shi'ite Islamists, notably Sadr's Mehdi Army, which they blame for death squad killings.

Shi'ite officials said Sadr supported the plan.

''This is the last chance. The Americans will give up on us after the seven months,'' one senior Iraqi official said.

''If this plan fails other options will be weighed, among them the United Nations coming into to run Iraq with a government of national salvation,'' he added.

The Shi'ites including Sistani are worried from what will happen next if this plan fails.

In some of their strongest comments yet, they bore out remarks from Bush and other senior US officials that Maliki, a compromise prime minister who owed his appointment to support from Sadr, is now ready to deal militarily with Shi'ite militias.

Another senior Shi'ite official said: ''We now have 60 percent chance of failure. This plan is our only hope. We as Shi'ites have no choice but to stand behind Maliki and strike hard at whoever wants to spoil our achievements.

''Those militias have no other choice but to give up... We will not accept any more games...The militias will be hit even if they hide in mosques.'' Maliki has said the plan will go after militants regardless of their religion but Bush's domestic opponents, sceptical of his decision to send 20,000 more troops to Iraq, have questioned whether they can trust Maliki to make good on his word.

US commanders say it is crucial to the Baghdad plan's success that the Shi'ite-led government take on fellow Shi'ites as well as insurgents from Saddam Hussein's once dominant Sunni Arab minority.

Washington has identified Sadr's Mehdi Army as the greatest threat to security in Iraq.

REUTERS LL RN1750