Punjab, Uttarakhand heading towards hung assemblies- Left

New Delhi, Jan 14 (UNI) Left parties view the coming Assembly polls in three states and later in Uttar Pradesh as a precursor to the 2009 general elections and forsee hung assemblies in Uttrakahand and Punjab.

The Assembly polls will definitely influence the course of political developments on the national political scenario despite the fact that there are different issues and different political combinations in the fray next month, the top Left leaders told UNI in separate interviews.

They also talked at length on their role in further isolating the "communal forces" in these polls and bringing to the fore the issues of development, employment opportunities, deepening agrarian crisis and the common man's sufferings.

On the possiblity of hung House in Punjab, CPI General Secretary A B Bardhan said " the Left has very serious objections to certain economic policies of Capt Amarinder Singh particularly his deal with Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani and the CM has antagonised the entire state government employees, electricity workers and other sections of the people." Mr Bardhan, the veteran Communist and freedom fighter, observed that the handing over of land by the CM was vehemently resented by the peasantry." This will have repercussions on the fortunes of the Congress in the rural and the urban areas." The CPI veteran said furthermore, policies of the state government were virtually not opposed by the Akali Dal- BJP combine." "That is why people have very difficult choice and that ensures victory of non-Congress, non- Akali forces and the individuals who will make it difficult for either side to win majority." On a similar possibility in Uttarakhand, Party National Secretary Shamim Faizi said Chief Minister N D Tiwari had not made any significant contribution towards the progress and prosperity of the state." But that applies to the BJP as well as it was in power at the time of creation of the state." Mr Faizi, editor, party Weekly 'New Age' said both were responsbile for messing up the state's economy and shattering the dreams of people of the new state.

The CPI leaders said though Uttrakhand Kranti Dal, a regional outfit, that had only four MLAs in the present Assembly, could not do much on its own, but it could definitely upset the political equations if it chose the right kind of allies including the Left.

The states going to elections this year have different issues and different political formulations, CPI(M) senior leader and party Deputy leader in the Lok Sabha Mohammad Salim said." Therefore, it is difficult to expect a single outcome."

The role of the Left in supporting the UPA on the basis of National Common Mimimum Programme (NCMP) and its vigil role will definitely attract the new support base, the CPI(M) leader said.

Though the UP elections are to take place later, but because of issues these are to throw up and the size of the state they are very important for the country's politics.

Forward Bloc National Secretary G Devrajan said the way the BJP is going back to its core communal politics, it would have the consequences of its so called" secular allies" getting isolated.

The emotive issues of temples and mosques attracted the voters no more, Mr Devrajan said adding that that development, education and employment opportunities are the real issues.

The Left leaders said given the present situation, it is important for all the secular forces to ensure that their division of votes should not give a new lease of life to the saffron party.

Elaborating, they said in Punjab and Uttarkhand the fight is between the two combinations- one led by the Congress and the other by the NDA.

But both these states are expected to throw up hung assemblies and the combinations which will then determine the alignment of forces for the grand battle in 2009.

In Punjab, though the Congress has regained some of the lost ground after the Chief Minister's ' Vikas Yatra' but still it faces a very stiff challenge from the Akali- BJP combination.

The CPI and the CPI(M), who contested in alliance with the Congress in last Lok Sabha polls, have now floated their own Front which includes Balwant Singh Ramuwalia's Lok Bhalai Party.

Though the Left parties are contesting limited number of seats and not projecting as an alternative, it may have an adverse impact on the prospects of the Congress in number of constiuencies. The Akali combine is also said to be facing the problem particularly in the urban areas, the traditional base of the BJP. In Uttrakhand, despite factional fight in the Congress, the BJP has not been able to exploit the incumbency factor. The three factions, led by Mr Tiwari, PCC chief Harish Rawat and maverick Satpal Maharaj, have influence in three different areas, so it might not harm each other in electoral terms and that it is the worry of the BJP, that too have internal dissessions, based on internal conflicts in Kumaun and Garhwal regions.

Manipur presents an interesting picture where the CPI and the Congress are in a coalition government, but have announced to contest the polls separately.

UP whose elections have been de-linked from these states, had a much more complicated political arithmetic. Here none of the national political parties- either the BJP or the Congress seem to be capturing power of their own.

The real battle for the Lucknow throne would be between the regional outfits- the SP and the BSP. But they too will be struggling for the status of the single largest party in the state assembly that will again lead to political realignments in the post poll- scenario.

Interestingly, both may not be adverse to joining the BJP for the sake of power, the Left parties asserted.

The Congress is expecting improvment in its position of 14 MLAs to become arbiter between the two outfits. But hurdle is Jan Morcha that too claims a share in the secular vote.

Here the problem is that the Left as a whole has not aligned with Jan Morcha while the CPI is already in in it combining the CPI(M-L).

The CPI(M) is still to take a firm decision as it has only announced that it would contest on its own but would not join any anti- SP combination.

If Punjab, Uttarakhand and UP throws up hung Houses, it will not only necessitate re-alignment of forces, but also have repercussions on the policies and programmes of the Manmohan Singh government, they said.

If Punjab and Uttarakhand the Congress has to seek an outside support of the Left, it would have to pay the price in terms of economic policies." Furthermore it has to look at the Lok Sabha polls in 2009, to be contested with their tacit or the open support of the Left.

Similarly, the SP or the BSP whosoever emerges as the single party has to either go with the BJP and the NDA for future battles or work for the so called Third Alternative. Only the final strength in these elections will determine the line up for 2009 general elections.

UNI