Hollywood bets on Mel's future as 'Apocalypto' opens

LOS ANGELES, Dec 9 (Reuters) ''Apocalypto,'' Mel Gibson's first film since his anti-Semitic tirade last summer, opened as Hollywood wondered whether his career, like the Mayan civilisation the movie depicts, is doomed to collapse or poised for resurrection.

Ushered into a crowded holiday-season marketplace with largely favorable reviews and ample media buzz, ''Apocalypto'' has defied easy predictions by industry analysts seeking to forecast its commercial potential.

''We have to see whether all this awareness translates into box office. It's tough to call,'' said Paul Dergarabedian yesterday, president of box-office tracking firm Media By Numbers, who put the film's likely US gross at between 13 million dollars and 17 million dollars through tomorrow.

Such a tally would pale in comparison to the million bow of Gibson's last movie, ''The Passion of the Christ'' in 2004. But in a weekend when the multiplex is bustling with several big box-office contenders, an opening in the mid-teens may be enough to rank as No 1.

As a hyper-violent, R-rated movie with subtitles and a cast of unknown performers, the movie hardly fits the profile of a typical Hollywood blockbuster.

Many reviews have praised ''Apocalypto'' as a gripping and visually spectacular work, though one with an exceedingly high quotient of blood and guts.

Film critic Joe Morgenstern of the Wall Street Journal yesterday called it ''the most obsessively, graphically violent film I'd ever seen.'' But he went on to hail it as ''a visionary work with its own wild integrity.'' Yet he added: ''seeing it once is enough for one lifetime.'' The film also is vying for attention against several other wide releases this weekend, including action thriller ''Blood Diamond,'' starring Leonardo DiCaprio, and the romantic comedy ''The Holiday,'' with Kate Winslet and Cameron Diaz.

And all those films face formidable competition from the ongoing successful runs of the latest James Bond adventure, ''Casino Royale,'' and the computer-animated dancing penguins of ''Happy Feet.'' WALT DISNEY DISTRIBUTOR What ''Apocalypto'' has going for it is an aggressive marketing campaign by distributor Walt Disney Co, with special attention paid to Spanish-language media, and intense hype surrounding the film's pedigree as the latest work produced, directed and co-written by the Oscar-winning Gibson.

His July 28 drunken driving arrest and the public furor sparked by his anti-Semitic rant at police who pulled him over led many in Hollywood to speculate that Gibson may have done irreparable harm to his image and career.

In the immediate aftermath of the scandal, Gibson, 50, issued repeated apologies, re-entered treatment for alcoholism and kept a relatively low profile.

In recent weeks, however, he has gradually ventured back into the public spotlight to plug his film, culminating with Thursday's guest appearance on NBC television's ''The Tonight Show with Jay Leno.'' Gibson has defied the odds before. ''The Passion of the Christ,'' a graphically violent, Aramaic-language dramatization of the final hours in the life of Jesus, exceeded all expectations by grossing 612 million dollars in worldwide ticket sales.

That film's success turned in large part on an unusual promotional campaign aimed at Christian moviegoers and on controversy generated by criticism of the film by Jewish leaders, who feared it would foment anti-Semitism.

Another of Gibson's intensely violent period pieces, his 1995 epic ''Braveheart,'' won five Academy Awards, including Oscars for best picture and best director for Gibson.

Leading online movie ticket service Fandango.com reported ''Apocalypto'' narrowly leading advance box-office sales for this weekend, accounting for 17 percent of the business as yesterday compared with 16 percent for ''The Holiday.'' A Fandango survey of potential moviegoers also found that 74 per cent of those interested in seeing ''Apocalypto'' had previously seen ''The Passion.'' REUTERS PB VC0932