Bird flu experts meet to fight virus, complacency

By Staff
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BAMAKO, Dec 6 (Reuters) Experts fighting bird flu around the world met today to replenish their war chest and plot the next stage of their campaign to control the disease and avert a devastating human flu pandemic.

The three-day meeting in Mali, the fourth global bird flu summit since late last year, includes a donor conference on Friday aiming to secure an extra 1.2 billion dollar to 1.5 billion dollar over 2-3 years to add to 1.9 billion dollar pledged in Beijing last January.

But the meeting began with a warning that complacency threatened to undermine international efforts against bird flu.

''Technical experts are sometimes accused of having overestimated the risks from this disease, or of exaggerating its potential threat,'' Modibo Traore, head of the African Union's InterAfrican Bureau for Animal Resources, told the opening session.

''The rampant demotivation that has resulted seems to have affected the main players in the struggle on all continents, and notably the donor community,'' Traore said.

The outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza began in Asia in 2003 and spread rapidly in early 2006.

It has now been detected in more than 50 countries around the world, including eight in Africa, where experts fear veterinary and human health systems are inadequate to contain outbreaks.

''It's not a lot of money: 500 million dollar per year, divided by the population of Africa is less than a dollar each a year,'' United Nations influenza coordinator David Nabarro told Reuters in the Malian capital Bamako.

So far the virus has killed 154 people who came into contact with sick birds and there are 258 reported cases worldwide.

But worse than the devastating effects on vital poultry industries in poor and densely populated countries, scientists fear the virus could mutate to jump between humans, triggering a human flu pandemic that could kill tens of millions of people.

''The potential costs of an influenza pandemic would be of the order of 1-2 trillion dollar ... and the actual cost of avian influenza thus far has been in the multiple billions of dollars,'' Nabarro said.

TICKING CLOCK Ordinary flu kills around 250,000 people around the world each year, but every 20 years or so the virus changes enough to cause a much more deadly pandemic -- the worst in living memory being ''Spanish influenza'' which killed anywhere from 20 million to 100 million people in 1918 at the end of World War One.

The last pandemic was in 1968 and experts say another pandemic could happen any time.

Scientists say that is most likely to happen in Asia, which has the most infections, but Africa remains a weak link due to poor veterinary and public health services which are likely to give infections more time to spread before being detected.

Nevertheless, the UN's Nabarro was upbeat, saying with the right advice and support African countries could step up their controls to combat bird flu -- and that rich nations would be prepared to foot the 500 million dollar-a-year bill.

''Yes, I think the money will be pledged, because I think the world cares,'' he said.

Reuters LL GC1811

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