Cuba set for military parade, waits for Castro

HAVANA, Dec 2 (Reuters) Cuba's aging armaments will roll through Havana today in the country's first military parade in a decade, but still unknown is whether ailing, elderly commander in chief Fidel Castro will show up to watch.

The parade, expected to start as early as 1800 hrs, closes out five days of events for Castro's 80th birthday celebration, none of which he has attended because of his prolonged recovery from surgery in July.

Castro's health and questions about his future have overshadowed the military display that experts say is a show of muscle to anyone who thinks communist Cuba is vulnerable because of uncertainty about its longtime leader.

Castro announced on July 31 he had an undisclosed intestinal problem and temporarily handed over power to brother and Defence Minister Raul Castro. Since then, he has been seen by the public only in photos and videos.

If he is unable to appear today, it will accelerate speculation he is too gravely ill to govern the country he has run since toppling dictator Fulgencio Batista in a 1959 revolution.

A healthy Castro would never miss a great occasion glorifying him and his government, said Frank Mora, professor of national security strategy at the National War College in Washington.

''I could not imagine Fidel giving up an opportunity like this. In the past, he relished these moments,'' he said.

Cuban officials have not said if Castro will attend the parade. But they have consistently said Castro is getting better and will come back, the latest assurance coming on Friday from Vice President Carlos Lage at a closing ceremony for Castro's birthday festivities.

Despite Castro's absence, Lage told 5,000 people at Karl Marx Theater in Havana, ''Fidel is recovering, we will have him among us, he will continue leading.'' He also talked about the future, saying socialism in Cuba was ''irreversible'' because even ''when there is no Fidel, there will be his work, his ideas and his example.'' DIMINISHED TROOP STRENGTH If Castro does show up in Havana's massive Revolution Plaza, he will see 300,000 civilians and soldiers marching, a replica of the Granma yacht that brought his rebel band to Cuba from Mexico on December 2, 1956, and a lot of antiquated military equipment, experts said.

Aged tanks, rocket launchers and MiG jet fighters left over from the Cold War when the Soviet Union supplied materiel to Cuba will be on display.

The Revolutionary Armed Forces have lost 80 per cent of their troop strength since the demise of Soviet communism in the early 1990s and are believed to have no more than 60,000 active-duty soldiers.

Cuba wants to let the United States, its archenemy, know it can fight, but also send a message to any dissident Cubans who might want to start something in this time of transition, experts said.

If Castro actually attends, the government may not have to worry about the latter, said Mora.

''After a few months of only message and pictures, to have Fidel in person would have an enormous positive impact for the regime. It would give many a sense there was no reason to feel uncertain about the future,'' he said.

REUTERS SB DS1218