Emerging FX-Asian rally pauses as dollar steadies, oil rises

By Staff
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Google Oneindia News

SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) Asian currencies paused on Thursday after rallying to multi-year highs in the past week against a dollar propped up by an upward revision to U.S. growth data.

A spike in crude oil prices on Wednesday to their highest in nearly two months above $62.50 a barrel also capped Asian currencies and gave the regional central banks reason to stand back from having to intervene to rein in their currencies.

The South Korean won hovered around 931 per dollar, pulling further away from a nine-year high this week of 925.

The Singapore dollar retreated from Wednesday's 9-year peak of 1.5430 per U.S. dollar, trading about a tenth of a percent lower.

The Taiwan dollar was quoted around 32.53/54, somewhat weaker than the previous session's high of 32.487.

The dollar was boosted by U.S. data showing that the economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.2 percent in the third quarter, higher than an earlier estimate of 1.6 percent.

The Thai baht was an exception in early deals to the Asian trend, rising to a fresh 7-1/2-year high of 36.04 per dollar, but analysts said it was unlikely to remain so.

''The Bank of Thailand will not resist a lower dollar/baht if the broad global trend is for a lower dollar,'' said Philip Wee, DBS Bank currency strategist.

But based on current euro/dollar and dollar/yen levels, the baht should be closer to 36.40 per dollar, he said. The euro was trading around $1.3145, having come off Wednesday's 20-month highs, while the yen weakened to 116.50 per dollar.

''This sort of tells you why Bank of Thailand is uncomfortable that the baht strength may have run ahead of itself,'' he said.

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has been intervening both verbally and by buying dollars this week, traders said.

The BOT said on Wednesday the baht had risen too fast and its rise was not justified by fundamentals. On Monday it had said it would ask the finance ministry to allow exporters to hold their overseas receipts for up to 15 days instead of the 7-day limit now in place.

The baht has risen about 1.5 percent in the past 8 sessions.

Shahab Jalinoos of ABN AMRO Bank said baht had risen this year on higher baht interest rates and the relative cheapness of Thai stocks. The currency has gained about 14 percent so far this year despite months of political uncertainty that culminated in a bloodless coup in September.

The strength of the trade account, which has propelled Thailand's current account to swing into surplus in the later half of this year, was also behind the baht's rally, he said.

Thailand is due to report October trade data later on Thursday.

''Until now, strong global demand has overwhelmed the effect of baht strength, allowing exports growth to remain solid.

''If the data show more evidence that this is still the case, we see room for further baht gains through 36.00 towards 35.50, given that the central bank has already thrown in the towel on its ability to stop this trend,'' Jalinoos said in a note to clients.

REUTERS AKJ KP0943

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