POLL-Turkey faces partial freeze of EU talks, possible halt

LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) Turkey faces about a one-in-three chance the European Union will halt its membership talks, but a partial freeze appears more likely as a deadline for Ankara to settle a trade row with Cyprus looms, a Reuters poll showed.

The survey of over 30 financial and academic institutions, carried out November 20-24, showed a 35 per cent chance of the EU halting entry talks with Turkey due in part to a lack of progress with Cyprus.

But economists said a more probable outcome would be an EU freeze in negotiations with Ankara in specific policy areas. The rich economic bloc requires Turkey to bring its laws into line with those of the EU in 35 ''chapters'' or policy areas.

The EU wants Turkey to open its ports to shipping from Cyprus before December 6, or face unspecified consequences. Turkey says it will only comply if the EU lifts trade restrictions against breakaway Turkish Cypriots it backs in northern Cyprus.

Analysts cautioned that if talks are suspended at an EU summit on 14-15 December, they may be hard to restart.

''As of June 2007 there will be no significant leader who is clearly associated with a strongly pro-EU (enlargement) stance.

Who is going to exert their political capital to get Turkey back into negotiations again?'', said Charles Robertson, chief economist at ING.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair, a strong Turkey advocate, is expected to resign by the summer. Other firm supporters of Ankara's bid, Germany's Gerhard Schroeder and Italy's Silvio Berlusconi, have already left office.

Yet an agreement to move on with the process on other levels is still likely, said Robertson.

''They will agree to disagree on Cyprus... There will be a partial freeze that will save face for all sides,'' he said.

The median forecast showed Turkey entering the EU in 2018, one year earlier than predicted in the last EU enlargement poll in August. The survey also found close to a one-in-three chance Turkey would pull out of talks itself as doubts increase over whether the country needs to be a member.

MISSED OPPORTUNITY? Economists said Turkey could not give in to EU demands over Cyprus with elections due next year in which the centre-right government is expected to face a strong challenge from nationalist parties.

But some said Ankara should have tried harder to reach some kind of agreement on Cyprus while Finland, seen as sympathetic to Turkey, holds the EU's rotating presidency. Finland hands the presidency to Germany, which is more sceptical, on January 1.

''Turkey has missed an opportunity and might see itself frozen out for at least six months of any meaningful progress of talks with the EU,'' said Zsolt Papp, economist at ABN AMRO.

The EU recently criticised the pace of Turkey's economic and political reforms in an annual report on its candidacy.

Turkey denies any slowdown in its reforms. It recently enacted improvements in the property rights of its non-Muslim religious minorities and says it will shortly amend a key law criticised by the EU as a brake on freedom of expression.

Meanwhile, other countries striving for EU membership such as Serbia and Croatia also face a long wait to join the EU.

Median forecasts showed Croatia joining in 2010 and Serbia in 2015 as the EU faces calls to slow its enlargement process.

REUTERS BDP KP0916