UPA crosses the half-way mark on Nov 22

New Delhi, Nov 19: The UPA, which came to power belying all poll predictions, completes half of its five-year term in office on November 22, upsetting all the calculations of the opposition NDA.

The Manmohan Singh government has not only proved the NDA wrong, but also managed to handle the Left parties successfully and is on course to redeeming its promises made in the National Common Minimum Programme (NCMP).

As the Congress-led ruling coalition steps into the second half of its tenure, the BJP and its allies are left with questioning the government only on a few issues in the winter session of Parliament beginning on November 22.

The issues include the delay in the execution of Mohammed Afzal, convicted in the Parliament attack case, price rise and China's claim over Arunachal Pradesh.

The next major test for the UPA would be in February when assembly elections are due in Uttar Pradesh, where Congress President Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi have high stakes, and Congress-ruled Uttaranchal and Punjab. In the recent local bodies polls in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP has emerged on top, shocking both the ruling Samajwadi Party and the Congress.

The other immediate hurdles that have to be overcome by the UPA dispensation are checking the inflation that has galloped to 5.3 per cent from 4 per cent about a year ago, finding its way out from the political mess created by the ongoing ceiling drive in the capital and the creamy layer issue relating to reservation in educational institutions.

Though the UPA has managed to survive in power, the road it has traversed thus far has not been smooth as it had to fend off crisis after crisis.

Politically, the Congress suffered major reverses at the state-level as it lost power in Karnataka in January following the withdrawal of support by the JD(U) and in Kerala after losing the assembly elections to the LDF.

The party, however, managed to return to power in Haryana last year and retained, at least partly, its rule in Assam and Pondicherry. It also helped its major Tamil Nadu ally, DMK, dislodge the Jayalalithaa government in the April/May elections.

The UPA can also take heart from the political developments which saw the BJP book major losses -- its former Chief Ministers Uma Bharti and Madan Lal Khurana parted ways and Mr L K Advani stepped down as party President after enraging the RSS with his comments on Mohammed Ali Jinnah. The BJP also took a body blow in the death of its General Secretary Pramod Mahajan, widely viewed as a Prime Ministerial material.

Also, the office-of-profit controversy which appeared to blow up in the face of the Congress was deftly turned into an advantage through the resignation of Ms Gandhi as an MP and her subsequent re-election with a thumping margin of over 400,000 votes in the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituency.

Another crisis sparked off by the Paul Volcker committee, which had named the Congress and the then External Affairs Minister K Natwar Singh besides some other individuals and entities, has also been managed so far.

The principal opposition at the Centre, however, had some solace as it won the assembly elections in Jharkhand and teaming with the JD(U) brought down the RJD-led government in Bihar.

If politics was a mixed bag for the UPA in the 2.5 years, economy was its highpoint, save disinvestment in inflation. The GDP growth has clocked about eight per cent for three years in succession, the free bull-run taken the sensex to an unimagined 13,500 mark and exports and the foreign exchange reserves are rising steadily.

On foreign relations, the recent US Senate approval of the Indo-US nuclear deal marked the success of India's diplomatic efforts, though Dr Singh said there was still a ''long way to go before the agreement becomes a living reality.'' India-Pakistan relations, which have always dominated the country's foreign policy, have also looked up with the two neighbours taking several confidence building measures, including the launch of several bus and train services. The relations suffered a setback in the wake of the July 11 serial blasts in Mumbai, but the Foreign Secretary level talks resumed earlier this month.

Among the tough challenges that lie ahead are carrying forward the economic reforms, particularly allowing FDI in the retail sector and disinvestment, the WTO negotiations, especially on agriculture subsidy.

The other major tasks are finding resources for implementing the several mega projects, including Bharat Nirman, Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission and the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, which would entail an outgo running into about Rs 5,00,000 crore.

UNI