Winter woes: Delhi headed for air pollution disaster

New Delhi, Nov 16: A latest assessment by the Centre for Science and Environment here of the trends in the peak pollution levels during winter months since 1998 has revealed that pollution in winter -- despite a climb-down until 2003 -- has once again begun to raise its head.

With the mercury dipping, the air in Delhi had begun to get heavy with dust, smoke and particles. Calm and cool weather was blocking the dispersal of smoke and pollutants. Low-hanging shroud impairs visibility and chokes lungs, it said.

Months of September and October during 2006 showed rapid build-up of pollution. This winter was a reminder of the growing pollution crisis, and our inability to put into action the real solutions, it added.

''Sustaining the pollution control efforts for further reduction in pollution levels is turning out to be an enormous challenge due to the explosive increase in vehicle numbers in Delhi. Over the last 10 years, the total personal vehicle registration has recorded a staggering increase of 105 per cent. In the same period, cars alone have increased by 157 per cent -- an effect of excess indulgence in personal mobility.'' ''It is shocking to note that diesel cars during the same period have increased by 425 per cent. The share of diesel cars, a mere four per cent of the total new car registration in 1999, has climbed to nearly 20 per cent in 2006. While petrol cars have increased at 8.5 per cent annually, diesel cars have maintained a growth rate of 16.6 per annum.'' This overwhelming growth could be devastating in a city desperate for solutions to smoke, particles and NOx, the study warned.

''So what if Delhi has phased out 12,000 diesel buses to escape from the lethal effect of toxic diesel particles -- even at a very conservative estimate, the 118,631 diesel cars on the city's roads is equivalent to adding particulate emissions from nearly 30,000 diesel buses,'' the study said. While public transport buses, three-wheelers and most taxis in Delhi had been effectively kept away from dirty diesel, it was the personal car segment which was riding high on the cheap and toxic fuel. Diesel was making a comeback through personal transport and was threatening to nullify the impact of the CNG programme, the study pointed out.

CSE warned that the number of bigger jeeps or SUVs, taken separately, could be much higher due to their daily influx from the surrounding satellite towns. A large number of these vehicles came to Delhi and left the city during peak hours. Diesel cars and SUVs not only emit several times more particulates, but were also allowed to emit three times more NOx compared to a petrol car.

''Even the assessment of trends in fuel consumption in the city confirms that the total diesel fuel consumption that was lowered with the ascendancy of CNG in the beginning of this decade has begun to increase again.'' ''This is very disturbing because deadly facts about diesel toxicity and evidence of the acute cancer-causing potential of diesel pollutants are pouring in from around the world. Diesel fumes have been found to bear a lot more particles and NOx than petrol exhaust and are several times more toxic. Clean diesel solutions are still not available in India.'' Significant steps were taken in the last few years to combat air pollution in Delhi. These included the implementation of one of the largest ever CNG programme in the world, implementation of Euro II and III standards, lowering of fuel sulphur to 500 ppm and subsequently to 350 ppm, lowering of benzene to one per cent and capping of the age of the commercial vehicles at 15 years, the study said.

These first generation measures had targeted to lower the deadly particulate pollution especially particulates from the poor quality diesel in the city, it added.

These mitigation efforts helped to stabilise particulates and substantially lower SO2 and CO. Substantial air quality gains were made possible with aggressive measures, the study said. ''But new challenges have begun to surface that requires consistent, sustained and aggressive action. The particulate levels, despite stabilisation, are still very high. NOx levels record steady rise in Delhi. If not tracked immediately, this can sabotage one of the largest clean air programmes in the world.'' ''Delhi will have to control the sheer numbers of cars and two-wheelers that are overpowering any attempts at change. Cars and two-wheelers take up nearly 90 per cent of the road space, meet less than 20 per cent of the travel demand and pollute excessively.'' The current efforts to augment the public transport buses and building of high capacity bus systems and the metro must gather momentum. The scale and the speed of this transition were critical to lower the numbers of cars and pollution in the city, it said.

Earlier studies such as those conducted by the All India Institute of Medical Sciences had shown that hospital admissions due to respiratory and cardiac symptoms increase manifold during the winter months in Delhi, the CSE report said and warned that Delhi would require pollution emergency measures this winter to avoid a public health disaster.

It suggested initiation of stringent on road checks for smoky vehicles and harsh penalty for vehicles seen with visible smoke.

Supportive measures were needed to intensify use of public transport this winter. Already, buses meet as much as 61 per cent of the travel demand in Delhi. Services of both metro and the existing bus system should be intensified to encourage maximum usage.

Dedicated bus and railway services between Delhi and the surrounding satellite towns should be intensified to discourage commuting in cars.

Encouragement for alternative-fuelled cars and discouragement of polluting cars, particularly on very high pollution days or in high pollution zones to be identified from the CPCB's air pollution data.

UNI