Castro unlikely to re-emerge as robust self: US

Washington, Nov 14: Cuban President Fidel Castro is not likely to return to power as his usual robust self because of lingering health problems that could include cancer, US officials said today.

More than three months after Castro temporarily relinquished power to his brother Raul, officials said the Bush administration remains uncertain about the Cuban leader's condition and has little information aside from an Oct 28 video showing Castro looking unexpectedly gaunt and aged.

''The working assumption is that he's got some form of cancer but where you go from there is an analytic piece of work,'' one US official said.

''If he does come back, he might not be what he was before.

That's what most people who've looked at the thing believe.'' The US media have sounded dire warnings about the Cuban president's health in recent months, suggesting Castro could be terminally ill with stomach, intestinal or pancreatic cancer.

''That's certainly viewed as a possibility, but it's not certain,'' a second US official said.

US intelligence, which has repeatedly been wrong about Castro since the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion, can claim little access to the team of physicians who surround Castro.

Officials believe the Cuban government released the October video showing a bearded, gray-maned Castro in order to dispel suggestions that he was ill enough to require chemotherapy and might not survive the coming year.

''That's a back-of-the-envelope prognosis. It assumes you know what it is he's got, you know what the course of treatment has been, and you know how the patient has responded so far,'' said one official.

''But how can you have an exact prognosis if you don't have an exact diagnosis?'' US officials have looked to the Cuban government itself for clues about the 80-year-old's health, believing the regime would try to manage popular reaction by presenting realistic expectations.

One of Castro's closest advisers said last Friday that the Cuban leader was recovering and expected to return to power but may not be well enough to attend his official 80th birthday celebration on Dec 2.

The comments by Ricardo Alarcon, who leads Cuba's National Assembly, were viewed as consistent with recent remarks by other senior Cuban officials.

''At a minimum, they're trying to buy themselves time. At a maximum, they're saying the guy might have a rough prognosis but that doesn't mean he can't come back,'' said an official.

Reuters