Uncertainty goes on for Cuba, ailing Castro

HAVANA, Nov 9: A recent Cuban government video made clear that once-robust Fidel Castro is now an old man diminished by time and illness and Cuba's future remains uncertain 100 days after surgery forced him to give up power for the first time since 1959.

The October 28 video showed a Castro so gaunt and unsteady that it gave new urgency to questions about his recovery from a July 31 intestinal operation and how his brother Raul, now temporarily in charge, will lead the struggling communist island.

Castro has been seen only in photos and videos since shortly before the surgery, and the latest was meant to squelch rumors he had died. Instead, his poor condition shocked a country that had been assured repeatedly he was getting better and would soon resume his duties.

Cuban officials continue to insist Castro will come back from his still-undisclosed illness, but citing reasons of security, give few details and are vague about time.

He was expected to make his first public appearance since surgery at a December 2 celebration of the 50th anniversary of the start of the revolution that put him power and, belatedly, his 80th birthday, but recently officials have been noncommittal about whether it will happen.

On Tuesday, the group in charge of his birthday celebration said it did not know if he would be healthy enough to show up.

Few Cuba watchers take the soothing government assurances at face value, but even those at the highest level admit they do not know what is happening.

''I don't have any information on the health of Fidel Castro. I think we don't know,'' US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Monday on Fox News network.

''But a transition is clearly under way (and) what has been a long-standing dictatorship is obviously going to come to an end sooner or later,'' she said with the same vagueness about time as Cuban officials.

FOCUS ON RAUL

With uncertainty surrounding Fidel Castro, the focus has turned to Raul Castro and questions raised about how he will rule and whether post-Fidel changes are afoot. The younger Castro, 75, has been defense minister since the 1959 revolution and is given credit for making the Cuban military one of the country's most respected institutions.

Many believe he may be open to Chinese-style economic reforms to revive Cuba's economy, still recovering from the 1991 collapse of its biggest benefactor, the Soviet Union.

Observers say there have been small signs of movement in the tightly controlled Cuban system: a few unusually blunt assessments of living standard problems in the state-controlled press, a couple of ministerial changes, and a probe of corruption and inefficiency in the communist system.

But it is too early and the Cuban government too closed to know what to make of it, said one Western diplomat in Havana.

''The assumption is that whatever happens won't happen rapidly,'' he said on condition of anonymity.

''I don't think as soon as Fidel's gone, Raul will bring in a whole stream of reforms. It may be more gradual.'' Whoever rules faces discontent among Cubans about chronic housing problems, consumer goods shortages, high prices and low wages.

The average Cuban makes the equivalent of only a month, which forces many to supplement their incomes any way they can.

Cuba watchers wonder whether Raul Castro will be able to keep control of the government if he does not make changes. Although he always has been at his brother's side, he is not as respected as Fidel Castro, they say.

Cuban officials dismiss talk of change as wishful thinking by Cuba's enemies. Raul Castro, they say, will toe the communist line as firmly Fidel Castro has.

''There is no divergence between Raul and Fidel on key issues,'' Cuban National Assembly head Ricardo Alarcon told Russian newspaper Kommersant last week in Moscow.

''If there exist two men believing in (the) same ideas and principles, it is Fidel and Raul Castro.''

REUTERS