Democrats' win alone won't drive Rumsfeld out

WASHINGTON, Nov 8 (Reuters) U S Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, the face of U S war policy and a lightning rod for critics worldwide, will not be forced out just because he faces a tougher time from resurgent Democrats.

But voters' repudiation of the Iraq war might cause President George W Bush to decide life would be easier without Rumsfeld around. Some insiders and analysts believe that could happen, despite Bush's declaration last week that he planned to keep Rumsfeld in the job.

The Democrats' victory in the House of Representatives almost certainly ensures investigations into the Pentagon's management of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Some Democratic strategists and congressional staff predict Rumsfeld will be around for the grilling.

Political insiders on both sides of the party divide also expect Democrats to put even more pressure on Bush now to replace Rumsfeld if he does not voluntarily quit. They demanded he be fired when they had no power in Washington.

Senior and former officials close to Rumsfeld say he will not be driven out by Democrats throwing their weight around in Congress. He has repeatedly said he would not quit, and defense officials say criticism makes Rumsfeld dig in his heels.

''He's not resigning,'' said one of those officials. ''He's best when he's criticized.'' Yesterday's election was driven largely by anger about Iraq, where three years of combat have failed to stop violence plaguing much of the country. Americans voted just days after the military saw its highest monthly death toll in almost two years.

TAKING THE ARROWS Rumsfeld, now the second-longest serving defense secretary, including his stint from 1975-1977 under Ford and his current tenure beginning in 2001, has taken much of the blame over Iraq. He's faced criticism for the Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse scandal and the Guantanamo Bay jail, failure to anticipate Iraq's insurgency and the quantity of troops and armor.

Democrats have not been his only critics. High-ranking Republicans also have raised doubts about Rumsfeld and expressed little confidence.

According to a recent book from Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward, then-White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card, with the support of first lady Laura Bush, had sought to fire Rumsfeld after Bush's 2004 re-election. The first lady has denied Woodward's claim.

Retired generals also have said he should be replaced, and newspapers that serve the military -- the Army Times, Navy Times, Air Force Times and Marine Corps Times -- called for his resignation. The papers are published by a Gannett Co Inc subsidiary, not the military.

Rumsfeld would gain little by leaving now, according to David Berteau, a Georgetown University security studies professor and former Pentagon official.

His legacy would be a policy that has led Iraq close to chaos and his departure could weaken Bush by removing from the picture a man who has taken many of the arrows launched against the administration, Berteau said.

Another defense official acknowledged the 74-year-old Rumsfeld was ''tired'' but called him a ''patriot'' who would not leave unless asked.

''If the president says, 'Well Done...,' he'll leave in a second,'' the official said.

That's what some administration officials say to expect.

Rather than squashing speculation about Rumsfeld's future, some said Bush's strong statement of support set the stage for the defense secretary to depart without appearing to have been pushed.

''Appearances in Washington are often the precise opposite of what is actually transpiring,'' said Loren Thompson, a Lexington Institute defense analyst with close ties to the military. ''In this case, a vote of confidence from the president may make it easier for Rumsfeld to depart.'' Reuters AKJ DB2151