US military sees Iraq edging toward chaos-report

WASHINGTON, Nov 1 (Reuters) US military commanders assessed two weeks ago that Iraq was edging toward chaos, according to a classified military chart published in the New York Times today.

The chart titled ''Index of Civil Conflict'' shows a color-coded bar with ''peace'' marked on the left and ''chaos'' on the right. An arrow puts the current situation inside the red area on the far right, much closer to chaos than peace.

US commanders have acknowledged violence in Iraq is at its highest level since US-led forces invaded in 2003 and toppled Saddam Hussein, but they have repeatedly said a full-scale civil war can be averted.

The chart, however, indicates a steady shift toward chaos since the bombing of a Shi'ite shrine in the town of Samarra in February. The graphic was prepared by US Central Command, which oversees operations in Iraq, and shown at a briefing on October 18, the New York Times said.

The chart also shows a slight shift toward chaos over the previous week. But White House spokesman Tony Snow said the graphic was only a snapshot taken at the height of violence during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

''If you got the same report last week, you would have found out the national sectarian incidents from the 21st to the 27th dropped 23 per cent, casualties nationwide dropped 23 per cent, incidents of sectarian violence in Baghdad dropped 23 per cent, sectarian killings in Baghdad dropped 41 per cent,'' he said.

Central Command said it would not comment on classified material but a spokesman said its top commander, Gen John Abizaid, and other leaders had been discussing ''the reality of the situation in Iraq'' for months.

''In fact in August, General Abizaid testified before Congress that warning signs were increasingly being seen in Iraq that the country could edge toward civil war, if not directly and determinedly confronted and abated,'' said Air Force Captain Gary Arasin, a Central Command spokesman.

''To that end, President Bush and (Iraqi) Prime Minister (Nuri al-)Maliki have assembled a team in recent days of key advisors to aggressively address the situation.'' Arasin said there was no question that the situation in Iraq was ''very difficult''.

''But we have considerable confidence in our leadership, our troops and the Iraqi government and its expanding ranks of security forces to stop the violence and to allow the people of Iraq to live without fear in a democratic society,'' he said.

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