Key US House contests come early on election night

WASHINGTON, Oct 31 (Reuters) While the vote count in the battle for the US Congress could stretch deep into the night on November 7, some of the earliest returns could offer big clues about the ultimate outcome.

Democrats hope to win early and often in crucial House of Representatives races in the Northeast and Midwest, where polls are the first to close and more than two dozen Republican incumbents are fighting for their political lives.

Democrats must gain 15 House seats and six Senate seats to seize power in each chamber. All 435 House seats and 33 of 100 Senate seats are at stake today.

The results in early closing House battlegrounds in Indiana, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and New Hampshire could be an early barometer of whether Democrats will sweep Republicans out of power in the House and how big the winning margin would be.

''The battle for the House is concentrated in the Central and Eastern time zones, so we could see a trend fairly quickly,'' said Amy Walter, a House analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

In the Senate, the four biggest battlegrounds -- Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri and New Jersey -- along with Pennsylvania, Ohio and Maryland, home to other big races, will be among the first states to start counting votes.

The actual vote counting could take hours in many states, particularly if there are problems as feared with new voting machines or if the races are so close they require recounts.

By 1900 hrs EST, voting will be done across Indiana and Kentucky, where polls in some areas close an hour earlier and a handful of Republican House members are in tough re-election fights.

Republican Reps Chris Chocola, John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel are trailing in Indiana, while Republican Reps. Geoff Davis and Anne Northup are slight favorites in Kentucky.

BIG TESTS Even bigger tests will come during the next hour, as polls close in the battleground states of Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, New Jersey and Tennessee.

In Connecticut, three Republican House members face tough challenges. Four House Republican incumbents are threatened in Pennsylvania, including three in the Philadelphia suburbs.

''If all three Connecticut seats go Democratic, or if all of the Philadelphia-area seats turn Democratic, this is going to be a very big night for Democrats,'' Walter said.

''How will you know if it's a good night for Republicans? If Democrats only pick up one seat in Connecticut or one seat in Philadelphia,'' she said.

In Connecticut, the spotlight has been on the bitter re-election fights of Republican Reps. Christopher Shays and Rob Simmons. But a recent nonpartisan poll showed Republican Rep Nancy Johnson trailing Democrat Chris Murphy by four percentage points.

''As those polls close on the East Coast we'll be able to get a very good sense early of how we are doing,'' said Sarah Feinberg, a spokeswoman for the House Democratic campaign committee.

At 2100 hrs EST on Wednesday, polls close in New York, where five Republican seats are in danger, and in some Western states where Democrats have an opportunity for gains like Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming.

With Democrats riding a wave of momentum in opinion polls, the list of endangered House Republicans has expanded to include states ranging from New Hampshire to Republican bastions like Idaho and Wyoming.

Republican campaign committees are spending to protect once-safe incumbents like Reps. Barbara Cubin in Wyoming, John Doolittle in California and Charlie Bass in New Hampshire.

If those races that had been flying under the radar start to trend toward Democrats, the party could be headed for a big majority, analysts said.

REUTERS SRS BD0208