Bulgarians vote for president, incumbent leads

SOFIA, Oct 22 (Reuters) Bulgarians vote today in elections expected to hand President Georgi Parvanov a second five-year term and help his ruling Socialist allies consolidate power ahead of joining the European Union on January 1.

But polls show voter frustration at poverty and slow reforms should lead to low turnout and force him into an embarrassing runoff with Volen Siderov, a nationalist whose xenophobic Attack Party has fought against EU entry.

An October 19 survey from state polling agency NPOC showed the 49-year-old former Socialist leader leading with 50.5 percent support. Siderov was far behind with 23 percent.

In third with 18 percent was the most popular candidate from Bulgaria's fragmented right-of-centre opposition, former constitutional court head Nedelcho Beronov.

''I am confident in our victory on October 22,'' Parvanov said as he wrapped up his campaign this week. ''As head of the state I will be a guarantee for political stability.'' Analysts say Parvanov has used the presidency's limited tools, which include vetoing laws and appointing cabinets, to become one of the Black Sea state's most influential figures.

Although he is running as an independent, he has close links to the Socialists. He is seen as the architect of their ruling coalition and the guiding hand keeping them and their centrists and ethnic-Turkish partners together since divisive 2005 polls.

''The immediate result of a Parvanov victory would be a consolidation of power for the existing government,'' said Rumyana Kolarova, a political scientist from Sofia University.

But many Bulgarians criticise him for doing too little to push the government to stop high-level corruption and organised crime and raise living standards that -- with average wages of 160 euros (202 dollar) a month -- will be the EU's lowest.

That has led to widespread ambivalence among voters. Polls this week forecast turnout of around 40 per cent, below the 50 percent threshold needed to prevent an October 29 runoff.

Siderov, a former journalist, has tapped into the discontent with inflammatory rhetoric against Bulgaria's minorities and a pledge to organise referendums on policy issues including Washington's plans to use military bases in Bulgaria and the Balkan state's participation in international structures.

Polling stations will open at 0830 hrs IST and close at around 2130 hrs IST. The first exit polls are expected at around 0100 hrs IST tomorrow, and partial official results a few hours later.

REUTERS PDS RAI0446