China, S Korea to test sway over North at summit

SEOUL, Oct 12: The leaders of China and South Korea, the only countries with any potential sway over North Korea, will meet tomorrow to find a response to Pyongyang's nuclear defiance.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and Chinese President Hu Jintao have both seen their policies of engagement with the North shaken by Pyongyang's announcement on Monday that it had carried out a nuclear test, and both are reassessing their approach.

Roh's meeting with Hu during a one-day visit to Beijing will come as the UN Security Council considers a package of sanctions to punish Pyongyang for its reported test.

''There is no way out for both China and South Korea but to join the UN action,'' said Ahn Yinhay, a specialist in Chinese-Korean relations at Korea University.

Ahn cautioned that neither Beijing nor Seoul, which dread an unstable North Korea on their borders, would back a UN call for military action against the North.

North Korea has said it would consider tough UN measures tantamount to a declaration of war and would respond in kind.

A new U.S. draft for a Security Council resolution, which invokes Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, determines that North Korea's actions are a threat to international peace and security.

However, China wants to restrict the reference to Chapter 7 to Article 41, which would authorise only a narrow list of sanctions to ensure no military action could be inferred.

RESTRICTING AID?

China, which fears an exodus of North Koreans across its border, and South Korea, which fears the massive military arsenal pointed at it by the North, have tried to placate Pyongyang over the years by sending massive amounts of aid its way.

Roh and Hu, cautious of backing Pyongyang into a corner, will likely discuss how much to restrict their flows of aid to the impoverished North, analysts said.

''It has become more difficult than ever for China and South Korea to influence the North so that it doesn't worsen the situation,'' said a South Korean government official who asked not to be named.

''If South Korea and China support sanctions, North Korea is making a bet that they can hunker down and go it alone,'' said Peter Beck, a Korea specialist in Seoul with the International Crisis Group, an international relations organisation.

The dynamic in Northeast Asia has also changed with the installation of new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who sought to defrost ties in the region with visits to China and South Korea earlier this week.

Beijing and Seoul, victims of Japan's past militarism, had halted summits under former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi out of anger over his visits to a Tokyo war shrine which is seen as glorifying Japan's military march through Asia.

After North Korea, defying international warnings, test-fired seven missiles in July, China and South Korea criticised the Koizumi government for over-reacting.

But, so far, neither has criticised Abe for taking a hard line and imposing unilateral sanctions on the North for its nuclear test announcement.

''Unlike under Koizumi, there is now a way to coordinate policy among China, South Korea and Japan,'' Ahn said.

REUTERS