China military expert urges gradual sanctions

BEIJING, Oct 11: China is likely to back gradually escalating sanctions to punish North Korea for a reported nuclear test, but resist squeezing Beijing's food and energy lifeline to isolated Pyongyang, a retired Chinese major-general told Reuters.

China may pressure North Korea, beginning with military sanctions, while leaving room for compromise and renewed talks aimed at dismantling Pyongyang's nuclear weapons, said Xu Guangyu, who worked on nuclear weapons policy in the People's Liberation Army command.

But Beijing is likely to resist harsher penalties that it fears could threaten the impoverished North, Xu told Reuters.

''My personal judgment is that China certainly won't take part in sanctions that involve grain or energy, because it's a matter of humanitarian principle. The North Korean people wouldn't survive,'' said Xu, now a researcher at the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, a government-sponsored institute.

The retired officer's comments shed some light on the steps China may back as the U N Security Council debates a response to North Korea's apparent underground nuclear blast on Monday.

China, long the sole significant supporter of its communist neighbour, broke its usual reticence and called Pyongyang's test a ''brazen'' betrayal of promises. As one of five permanent members of the Security Council, China will have a crucial say in what sanctions are finally imposed.

Beijing's U N Ambassador, Wang Guangya, said yesterday that ''punitive actions'' against Pyongyang were likely, but did not say which of Washington's proposed steps he could support.

A U S draft resolution includes a total arms embargo, a freeze on any transfer or development of weapons of mass destruction and a ban on luxury goods. Xu said China would probably support a set of gradually tougher sanctions, beginning with a ban on shipments of guns and other conventional arms.

China provides North Korea with much of its oil, and Washington and its allies have said Beijing should use its economic leverage to pressure Pyongyang.

In the first eight months of 2006, China exported 369,643 tons of crude oil to North Korea, an increase of 0.7 per cent on the same time last year, according to Chinese customs figures.

But Xu said squeezing North Korea's economic arteries would risk regime collapse and regional instability, and U N-backed measures should not push North Korea into dangerous desperation.

''It will be difficult to avoid sanctions. The key is their intensity,'' he said. ''Sanctions should be in stages, not too far in one step.'' China would probably soon send an envoy to Pyongyang to discuss the nuclear crisis, he added.

''We're old friends, and they ignored our views, so naturally we're not too happy,'' Xu said of Chinese-North Korean ties.

But, echoing the views of many in Beijing, Xu said a lasting solution to the nuclear crisis would need direct negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington.

''It was a foolhardy act, but I think the strategic objective was limited -- it was directed at attracting the attention of the United States,'' Xu said of the test, adding that Washington had nothing to fear from North Korea's military.

''They're totally disproportioned -- it's like an elephant standing next to some small creature.''

REUTERS