Japan's PM Abe gets a helping hand from N Korea

Tokyo, Oct 10: Kim Jong-il is almost starting to look like Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's best friend.

Four years after Abe made a name for himself with his tough stand on North Korea's kidnapping of Japanese citizens, an announcement by Kim's government that it had conducted a nuclear test looks set to boost support for his drive to raise Japan's profile and loosen the constraints of its pacifist constitution.

''One of Abe's claims to fame is that he has been steadfastly hardline on North Korea,'' said Ralph Cossa, president of Hawaii-based think-tank Pacific Forum CSIS.

''This helps increase his ability to say 'I told-you-so'.'' Abe, 52, took office late last month promising to adopt a more muscular diplomacy, rewrite the US-drafted constitution and strengthen military cooperation with the United States, while at the same time seeking to thaw ties with China and South Korea.

Abe, who as chief cabinet secretary led Japan's response to North Korea's missile tests in July, was already looking well-placed for a diplomatic coup after winning agreement from Beijing and Seoul to resume summits denied to predecessor Junichiro Koizumi because of his pilgrimages to Yasukuni Shrine.

Then, North Korea's warning last week that it would conduct a nuclear test smoothed the way for his Sunday summit with Chinese President Hu Jintao by overshadowing friction over Yasukuni, seen in Beijing and Seoul as a symbol of Japan's past militarism.

Yesterday, Pyongyang's announcement, less than an hour after Abe arrived in Seoul, that it had conducted a test similarly allowed him and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun to concentrate on the security threat at talks in Seoul.

Abe has visited Yasukuni in the past but declines to say whether he would do so as prime minister.

Yesterday, with the focus on North Korea, Roh did not even press Abe to make a clear promise not to visit Yasukuni.

''The discussions focused on North Korea, and China, South Korea and Japan found a common issue so he was able to conclude the summits safely. That's a political plus,'' said Takahide Kiuchi, a senior economist at Nomura Securities Co Ltd.

BROADER AGENDA

More broadly, North Korea's nuclear threat is likely to stir fresh debate on whether Japan should acquire the capability to strike overseas enemy bases in the case of an imminent attack.

The issue has been simmering since North Korea fired a long-range missile over Japanese territory in 1998.

Abe angered Seoul after North Korea's July missile tests by saying Japan should open debate on the matter.

''Everyone keeps asking whether Japan will go nuclear. That's preposterous,'' Cossa said. ''The only cause of Japan going nuclear is if the United States removes its nuclear umbrella.'' ''The bigger question is whether it will help open the debate on defensive versus offensive systems ... I expect it will at least raise the question of whether Japan wants to invest in these expensive systems,'' Cossa said.

But he added that Japan was likely to decide to keep relying on the United States rather than take on the added cost burden.

Japan's constitution's war-renouncing Article 9 bans the maintenance of a military but has been interpreted as allowing armed forces purely for self-defence, a concept successive governments have been stretching for more than a decade.

As citizens of the only country to suffer a nuclear attack, many Japanese still have an allergy to the notion of obtaining an atomic arsenal, although Abe himself said in 2002 that having short-range nuclear weapons would not violate the constitution.

Abe has also made clear he wants to loosen constitutional restraints on the exercise of collective self-defence, or coming to the aid of an ally under attack, and North Korea's nuclear threat could provide fresh impetus to at least discuss that.

A US draft of a UN Security Council resolution on North Korea alls for international inspections of all cargo moving into and out of North korea to detect weapons-related material.

But Japan could probably not take part directly without altering its ban on exercising collective self-defence, a shift easier to contemplate than to achieve, analysts said.

''Japan's participation should not entail the use of force and not entail elements of collective self-defence,'' said Yoshihide Soeya, a Keio University professor of international relations.

''I think Japan would take part no matter what. That is very important symbolically. That is the spirit of self-assertive diplomacy. But what Japan would do is somewhat different,'' he said, adding Japan might provide logistical support.

REUTERS

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