Succession fever to dog Blair when party meets

London, Sept 21: Britain's Tony Blair will give his final speech to the ruling Labour Party's annual conference next week with succession fever set to dominate a meeting that may determine when the prime minister quits.

Blair is expected to lay out his vision for Labour's future, keen to entrench policies that have shaped his nine-year premiership and to keep the focus off leadership squabbles.

Labour, aware the rows could lose the party votes in local elections next May, is largely expected to unite around Blair, at least in public.

But the saga of when Blair will go and who will challenge finance minister and heir apparent Gordon Brown for the top job will dominate the headlines at the rally that starts on Sunday.

''There will be the face for the media and then Brutus and his boys will be working behind the scenes,'' said Labour lawmaker Ian Gibson, a frequent Blair critic, referring to one of Julius Caesar's assassins.

Beset by calls to name his exit date amid fierce infighting between the rival Blair and Brown camps, the prime minister announced earlier this month he would stand down within a year.

Blair wants to decide his own exit date and analysts agree he is keen to notch up 10 years in office in May 2007.

But events could force his hand and the mood at the five-day rally in Manchester, northern England, will be key to gauging how long Blair has got, analysts and Labour legislators said.

''There is still considerable uncertainty,'' said Mark Wickham-Jones, a political analyst at Bristol University. ''The unravelling of Blair's premiership could go in different ways.''

WANING POPULARITY

Labour parliamentarians said potential successors to Blair and his deputy John Prescott are furiously canvassing for support and may declare their intentions at conference. The battle for deputy prime minister is already in full swing.

''There'll be feverish activity,'' said one lawmaker.

Many want Blair, whose popularity has waned since he backed the 2003 US-led war on Iraq, to clarify his exit plans in Manchester, a call he is not expected to heed.

They fear the uncertainty plays into the hands of a resurgent main opposition Conservative Party, which has crept ahead of Labour in opinion polls.

''Most people want Labour to get on with running the country and think the uncertainty is a huge distraction,'' said Labour legislator Geraldine Smith.

Brown, who addresses activists on Monday, has been waiting to succeed Blair for years and will be closely watched for signs of impatience. Blair will make his final speech on Tuesday.

The Blair-Brown partnership has been the bedrock of Labour's success but relations have been tense and at times hostile.

The charismatic Blair helped Labour storm to victory in 1997 after 18 years in opposition, the first of three election wins.

But the Iraq war angered many Britons. Blair's determination to press ahead with public service reforms that critics see as part-privatisation and his failure to demand an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon irked Labour's rank and file.

Blair took the unusual step of saying before the 2005 election that he would not seek a fourth term and promised a ''smooth transition'' before the next poll, expected in 2009.

REUTERS