US general sees no Iraq troop cut before mid-2007

WASHINGTON, Sep 20 (Reuters) The United States is unlikely to begin cutting its troops in Iraq until at least mid-2007 as they try to stop sectarian violence from degenerating into civil war, a senior general said.

Army Gen John Abizaid, who as head of US Central Command oversees the war, said the United States might even increase the size of its force from the current 147,000, the highest since January. He also did not rule out holding in place US units scheduled to leave Iraq in coming months.

His comments, the most pessimistic to date on a US drawdown, come amid unabated sectarian violence in Baghdad between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims that has elevated concerns over civil war 3-1/2 years after a US-led invasion.

''I think that this level will probably have to be sustained through the spring, and then we'll re-evaluate,'' said Abizaid, acknowledging that he thought there would have been thousands fewer US troops in Iraq by now.

''I think these are prudent force levels. I think they're achieving the military effect,'' Abizaid told reporters.

Abizaid and Gen George Casey, the top commander in Iraq, and others had forecast that troop levels would decline this year, while Democrats accuse the White House of mismanaging an unpopular war.

The war has become a key part of November's US congressional elections, with some Democrats advocating withdrawing troops starting this year. The Bush administration has said such timetables would embolden US enemies, and troops will remain as long as necessary.

US troop levels have increased by 20,000 since late July. They peaked at about 160,000 late last year.

In June, when there were 127,000 US troops in Iraq, US commanders proposed bringing home two brigades of about 3,500 each this month and one or two more by the end of the year.

'ONE PRIORITY' A high-level US panel said the next three months would also be critical for Iraq's government and called on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to improve security, relations between communities and basic services.

''The government of Iraq needs to show its own citizens -- soon -- and the citizens of the United States that it is deserving of continued support,'' said Lee Hamilton, a former Democratic congressman who co-chairs the Iraq Study Group.

The panel of senior ex-officials, with Republican former Secretary of State James Baker as its other co-chair, is charged with taking a fresh look at US policy on Iraq by members of Congress and has support from the White House.

Abizaid defended the US decision to shift troops out of Anbar province, heartland of the Sunni Arab insurgency, into Baghdad to focus on the curbing sectarian violence.

He said the insurgency could not sink US efforts in Iraq, but sectarian tensions like those boiling in Baghdad ''if left unchecked could be fatal to Iraq.'' Asked why not increase US troops in both Anbar and Baghdad, Abizaid said that while he had ''ample troops'' in Iraq, that ''doesn't mean you have enough troops to do everything everywhere.'' ''I think Baghdad is the most important place to put the military priority of effort. We military guys generally believe that you have one priority effort. And our priority effort is Baghdad, not Anbar,'' Abizaid said.

Abizaid said Anbar, which makes up a third of Iraq, is loaded with ''very small population centers that if you concentrated your campaign efforts there would soak up a lot of troops from the decisive areas where we need them more.'' Abizaid was pressed on whether the military, strained by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, even had more ground troops available to go to Iraq. He said it was important the US military be managed so it could address needs in Iraq and Afghanistan but also ''unforeseen problems that may arise'' in a place like Iran.

Abizaid said Baghdad security has gotten ''slightly better'' and by December ''we'll have a pretty good idea whether the tactics that we've employed are right, or we're going to have to do something different.'' REUTERS DKS BST0511