Japan's Abe set to win party leadership, become PM

TOKYO, Sep 20 (Reuters) Shinzo Abe, a staunch advocate of a bigger say for Japan in global affairs, was poised to win a ruling party leadership contest today, setting the stage for his election as prime minister next week.

Abe, set to become Japan's first prime minister born after World War Two, has pledged to rewrite Japan's pacifist constitution, forge even tighter security ties with close ally Washington, and put patriotism back in Japanese classrooms.

He has also promised to seek a thaw in ties with China and South Korea, chilled by outgoing Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to a Tokyo war shrine. But he has stressed that better relations require efforts on all sides.

Abe's widely anticipated victory over two fellow cabinet members all but ensures his election as prime minister when parliament convenes for a vote on September 26 because of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's grip on the lower chamber.

Abe, who turns 52 tomorrow, has promised to pursue growth while pushing economic reforms begun by Koizumi, who took power in 2001 vowing to cut his party loose from the grip of vested interests and reduce government's heavy hand on the economy.

The soft-spoken Abe has long topped the list of politicians Japanese voters prefer to see succeed Koizumi, making him the candidate of choice for a hefty majority of LDP lawmakers looking ahead to elections for parliament's upper house next summer.

First elected to parliament in 1993, Abe has held only one cabinet post, his current key job as chief cabinet secretary.

He first became a household name four years ago for his tough stance in a feud with North Korea over Japanese citizens kidnapped by the secretive communist state decades ago.

Now Abe faces the dual challenges of repairing ties with Beijing and Seoul and keeping economic reforms on track while addressing voter worries about the widening social gaps many see resulting from Koizumi's reforms.

ASIAN DIALOGUE OR FRICTION? ''People are very concerned that this (Abe's election) is going to mean a lot of friction with Japan's Asian neighbours, so the extent that Abe can allay those fears and be proactive and try to build dialogue with the rest of Asia, I think, will be critical if he really wants to carry out constitutional reforms,'' said Goldman Sachs strategist Kathy Matsui.

Abe, a third-generation politician, is thought unlikely to adopt Koizumi's combative approach in forging ahead with economic reforms and has so far failed to flesh out details of how he intends to get a handle on Japan's bulging public debt.

''There hasn't been a strong push by Abe as a candidate and as a cabinet minister toward the type of fiscal and pension reforms that the government needs to address,'' said Kirby Daley, a strategist at brokerage Fimat.

''But that may change after he takes office. Foreign investors need to watch this for the long-term, economic health of Japan.'' With Abe's win seen wrapped up, attention is already turning to the question of who will be awarded plum cabinet posts.

Rival candidate Taro Aso, the foreign minister, is expected to get either a top party post or a cabinet portfolio after campaigning on a platform that largely echoed Abe's own.

Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, who criticised Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni and clashed with Abe by urging that the 5 per cent sales tax be raised to 10 per cent by 2015, has already said he will not remain in the cabinet if he loses the LDP race.

Abe has defended Koizumi's pilgrimages to Yasukuni Shrine, where Japanese leaders convicted as war criminals by an Allied tribunal are honoured with war dead, and gone there in the past.

But he has declined to say whether he would follow suit as prime minister, an ambiguity some see as a way to leave the door open to better ties with Beijing and Seoul.

REUTERS DKS BST0558