Japan's PM Koizumi faces life out of spotlight

TOKYO, Sep 15: Will Japan's drama-loving prime minister stage a sudden disappearing act, quietly pull strings from behind the scenes, or perhaps even return for an encore? Speculation is simmering about the future for 64-year-old Junichiro Koizumi, who steps down on September 26 after a ruling party leadership election in which he is set to be replaced as party chief and premier by his ally, Shinzo Abe.

A return to the political rank-and-file may seem a little bleak to a leader whose fondness for dramatic gestures and offbeat publicity stunts kept the media spotlight trained on him throughout his five-year premiership.

Long single after a short-lived marriage in his thirties, Koizumi is often described as a loner, despite his easy-going manner. He lives apart from his three sons and is reported to have said he will not marry again, though rumours to the contrary are sometimes picked up by Japan's weekly tabloids.

''I think he will continue as a member of parliament. But he won't be able to lead such a flamboyant life. He will try not to stand out,'' said political analyst Minoru Morita.

''The most important thing is that people have held back on criticism of Koizumi -- now they will let it all out,'' Morita added. ''As much as he has been praised in the past, he will now be beaten up on.'' Japan has no custom of easing former leaders into retirement with a stint in parliament's upper house, as in Britain. Indeed, there is a precedent for a complete break with politics.

Morihiro Hosokawa resigned as a lawmaker in 1998 at the age of 60, several years after his term as premier was cut short by a financial scandal: he later made a name for himself as a potter.

Koizumi has kept up his own hobbies throughout his premiership -- opera, kabuki theatre and movies -- but none of these provide an alternative way to make a living.

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Analysts, and Koizumi himself, have dismissed the possibility of a career change. ''I am a politician,'' he told reporters this week. ''I don't think I can do well in other areas. I would like to mull what I can do as a member of parliament making use of my experience as a prime minister.'' Assuming that he stays on as a lawmaker, some analysts say Koizumi will try to make use of his links with Abe, whom he appointed to a series of senior party and government positions at a relatively young age, as a way of keeping his clout.

''In order to retain some influence, he supported Abe,'' said Rei Shiratori, a political scientist at Tokai University.

''But if Abe cannot be independent from Koizumi, his premiership will be short,'' he added.

Kakuei Tanaka, who served in the early 1970s and was embroiled in scandal, became known as a backstage puppet-master.

Yet another model to follow might be that of Yasuhiro Nakasone, a long-serving prime minister in the 1980s.

Nakasone transformed himself into an elder statesman whose opinions were often sought out, even after Koizumi forced him to give up his parliamentary seat in 2003.

Some commentators say Abe's popularity will wane soon after he takes over the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), forcing the party to try to boost public support by bringing Koizumi back for another term -- a highly unusual move in Japan.

Others say that by naming Abe as his favoured successor, Koizumi is showing he has no interest in a return to the top job.

Still, Koizumi has sprung surprises before.

''Successive Liberal Democratic Party prime ministers have chosen to stay on,'' said Norihiko Narita, a politics professor at Surugadai University. ''But Koizumi is an eccentric, so it is hard to be sure what he will do.'' Many do feel they can safely predict how he'll spend his spare time, now that he has more of it.

''I see him sitting in a darkened room, listening to Richard Wagner and drinking whisky with ice,'' said Shiratori.

Reuters