Panic grips over earthquake prediction in Assam

Guwahati, Sept 7: Panic has gripped entire Asom, more in the Upper Asom, following a 'pinpoint prediction' of earthquake hitting Asom tomorrow morning by a Madras University professor.

''The end of the world'' for Asom will be at 8:21 AM tomorrow, according to Prof N Venkatanathan of the Department of Applied Geology.

He issued the statement at Banglaore yesterday.

As the news splashed all over the newspapers this morning, there was complete chaos and panic and almost everything had come to a grinding halt with everyone taking no chance and silently preparing for the worst.

Panic buying could be seen in almost every market and so was the long queue before ATMs, and coincidental disaster management camps run by the state government had convinced the people that end of the world will be tomorrow.

''I live in the third floor of an apartment. I am not going to stay up there tomorrow. I have made an arrangement to store basic provisions and some baby food as I have an infant. I know that there is 99 per cent of prediction going wrong but why we should take risk knowing everything,'' said Syed Zair Hussein, a senior journalist.

The statement of the Applied Geology professor predicting that there was a 70 per cent chance of a 7-8-magnitude earthquake hitting Assam on Friday.

''We are ready to meet any disaster, '' said Atul Agnihotri, the District Magistrate of Dibrugarh, which supposed to bear the maximum brunt of this earthquake.

The statement, issued by N Venkatanathan, said the alignment of the Sun, Moon and Mercury that day is exactly similar to the one that existed on Aug 15, 1950, when an earthquake of a magnitude of 8.5 on the richter scale killed thousands in Asom changing the landscape forever.

Based on the analysis, he said the earthquake could occur around 0821 hrs with its epicenter about 15 km southwest of Dibrugarh. But the seismologists had debunked the prediction, saying it would be impossible to predict. Mr Venkatanathan, who had been making predictions using geo-astrophysical calculation that he developed as part of his PhD thesis, said, '' On both days, the direction of planetary force acting is also similar, which is a worrying factor. '' A board member of the Britain-based International Society for Earthquakes Prediction, Mr Venkatanathan was, however, careful to emphasise that his alert was not an official warning but flew out of his theory which he had successfully tested for several years.

But in Asom , none was concerned about this academic debate. '' I know it will not come but if it comes, what is the harm in organising ourselves for the impending danger, '' said Krishna Das, a housewife, picking up a long rope, some candles and a torch light from the market before proceeding to withdraw some cash from the Bank.

'' This, plus the fact that the region has experienced several small shocks in the last three weeks, and recent observation by seismologist Arun Bapat of Pune of abrupt drop in atmospheric temperature in that region give this prediction for Asom , '' Mr Venkatanathan said.

According to his theory, when two or more planets fall in line with the Earth, the net gravity forces act as ''trigger'' for the release of the accumulated stress at faults and plate boundaries in an earthquake-prone region.

According to scientists, Northeast is a region where a major earthquake is due because of strain building up since the 8.5 magnitude quake in 1950. But they agree that it is difficult to predict the timing of this event.

But there is total panic and weather playing little unnatural, almost everyone is convinced that something is in the offing and some are even trying for a last minute insurance of their property.

UNI