Ernesto could become powerful hurricane in Gulf

MIAMI, Aug 26 (Reuters) The fifth tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Ernesto, could become a dangerously powerful hurricane in the oil-producing Gulf of Mexico next week, US forecasters said today.

As with any storm, the US National Hurricane center said the forecast for Ernesto was highly uncertain.

But very warm waters in its path as it approached the Gulf, where a quarter of US crude oil and natural gas production is located, could lead to significant strengthening around the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, the Miami-based center said.

''This could result in Ernesto becoming a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico,'' hurricane center forecaster Lixion Avila said in a bulletin on the storm.

If it does become a hurricane, it will be the first of the six-month hurricane season, which began June 1.

Located around 395 km south-southwest of Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic, by 8 am EDT 1730 ist. Ernesto's forecast track could take it over Jamaica tomorrow and the western tip of Cuba by Tuesday.

By Thursday, it was projected to be swirling in the middle of the Gulf as a possible Category 3 hurricane on the 5-step Saffir Simpson scale of storm intensity, with sustained winds of at least 178 km per hour that are capable of damaging homes.

Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3 storm when it came ashore in Louisiana last August. 29 and devastated the city of New Orleans by breaching its levees, killing around 1,500 people on the Gulf Coast.

Katrina, and the other hurricanes produced by a record storm season last year, toppled offshore oil platforms, destroyed undersea pipelines and flooded coastal refineries.

Oil prices soared to record highs.

Ernesto's eventual target zone ranged anywhere from the Florida Panhandle through New Orleans and down to the border with Mexico.

By 8 am 1730 ist, Ernesto's maximum sustained winds had strengthened slightly to 80 kph and it was moving toward the west-northwest near 24 kph.

Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches (20 cm), could be expected across Puerto Rico, Jamaica, the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic and Haiti because of Ernesto, the hurricane center said.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for the south coast of Hispaniola, the island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and a tropical storm watch was in effect for Jamaica, the hurricane center said.

It added that a hurricane watch would likely be issued by the wealthy Cayman Islands and warned Cuba to be on guard.

This hurricane season, while forecast to be busier then active, has been relatively quiet with just five tropical storms and no hurricane to date.

By this time last year there had been 11 tropical storms, of which five became hurricanes, including Katrina. The 2005 season went on to produce a record-breaking 28 storms, of which 15 became hurricanes with winds of at least 119 kph.

REUTERS DKA RK1903