Bush voices concern over talk of an Iraq civil war

WASHINGTON, Aug 21 (Reuters) President George W Bush today voiced concern over talk in the United States of a civil war in Iraq, prompting speculation he may be coming around to the idea and considering a future exit strategy.

Bush's administration has insisted for months that Iraq is not sliding into civil war despite sectarian violence that has killed hundreds of Iraqis.

''I hear a lot of talk about civil war,'' Bush told a news conference. ''I'm concerned about that of course.'' Some U.S. analysts say repeated talk of a civil war could pressure the administration into a withdrawal of the 135,000 U.S.

troops in Iraq, especially if Bush's approval ratings fall further ahead of U.S. congressional elections in November.

Bush made clear he saw an immediate withdrawal as ''absolutely wrong,'' but by using the term civil war and voicing unspecified concern, he might be acknowledging the view of U.S. commanders earlier this month that civil war could be near.

Former U.S. ambassador to Israel and Egypt, Ned Walker, said if military commanders were talking about civil war they must have been given permission from the White House to do so and Bush was testing public opinion by uttering the phrase.

But Walker said Bush was playing a high-risk game by talking of civil war because it would boost pressure to pull out of Iraq, especially if the White House heightened public fears over the threat of Iran building a nuclear weapon.

''If we are going to go into Iran, then you need to have the ability to pull back from there (Iraq),'' Walker said.

Bush's strongest argument for staying in Iraq was the threat of terrorism and its direct impact on the United States. Once civil war was raised as the main threat, the public's appetite to stay there would wane fast, said Walker.

NO COMMENT The State Department declined comment on Bush's speech or to say whether it reflected a policy shift, but some officials said they were seeking White House guidance.

Within the State Department, which has taken the lead on U.S.

policy toward Iraq, there has been discussion of the merits of U.S.

strategy and whether staying the course was worth it in the face of civil war.

''Iraq is a big, fat mess,'' said a senior Bush administration official who declined to be identified because of the negative nature of his comments.

''The real problem here is that the Iraqis are going against each other,'' he told Reuters last week.

Wasia expert Shibley Telhami said Bush's credibility was at risk over Iraq and he could no longer rely on ''denial and spin.'' Telhami said the crisis in Lebanon and growing fears over Iran had led to a greater call for a US withdrawal from Iraq, even among some of the neoconservatives who had called for the March 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

''There is a sense that the American public would not contemplate a confrontation with Iran as long as America is trapped in Iraq,'' said Telhami of the Brookings Institution.

Iraq expert, James Phillips of the Heritage Foundation, said people should not read too much into Bush's words.

''I don't think this indicates a softening. He (Bush) is on record as remaining committed to his vision of a democratic Iraq but there is a greater appreciation ... that many of the contending factions seem more intent on killing each other,'' he said.

REUTERS SK BST0138