US-S Korea to start military drills, North sees war

SEOUL, Aug 20 (Reuters) US and South Korean troops start military drills tomorrow which are likely to increase regional tensions already high due to the North's July 5 missile launches and reports it is preparing for a nuclear test.

The annual drills, dubbed Ulchi Focus Lens, have been held without incident in South Korea for decades. Yet the North brands them as a prelude to invasion and nuclear war, vowing to boost its nuclear deterrent to counter threats of this sort.

Some are wondering if North Korea may use this year's drills as an excuse to step up preparations for a possible nuclear test.

Analysts said North Korea could be trying an extreme form of sabre rattling by giving signs of a possible nuclear test to force the international community, and Washington in particular, into making concessions to the poor and isolated state.

''The joint military exercises are another grave military provocation to the DPRK (North Korea). They are nothing but a very dangerous military adventure driving the situation of the Korean peninsula to the brink of a war,'' its official KCNA news agency said on Friday.

The North defied international warnings and test-fired seven missiles on July 5, including its long-range Taepodong-2, which experts said could one day hit parts of US territory.

ABC News reported last week that a US intelligence agency had observed suspicious vehicle movements at a suspected North Korean test site. It quoted an unidentified senior State Department official saying a test was a real possibility.

President George W Bush warned on Friday that North Korea would pose a threat to the world if it tested a nuclear bomb for the first time.

''SCEPTICAL'' Government officials in Washington and Seoul would not confirm the reports of an impending test, with South Korea's point man for the North saying he was sceptical.

''North Korea's willingness to risk international retribution for launching a long-range missile increases the potential for Pyongyang to conduct a nuclear weapons test,'' said Bruce Klingner, an expert on Korean affairs for the US-based Eurasia Group.

''There is a greater potential for North Korea to conduct a nuclear test than at any time in the past. We assess a 10-20 percent likelihood of a test during the next two months, with a higher potential by year's end,'' he said in an e-mail.

Ulchi Focus Lens will run until September 1. The drills, which test computer systems and command structures, involve about 5,000 US troops on the peninsula, 3,000 US troops in the Pacific and US mainland and an undisclosed number of South Korean troops, a US Forces Korea spokesman said.

North Korea declared itself a nuclear power in February 2005, without carrying out a test. While North Korea has workedfor years to develop a bomb, proliferation experts could not say for sure if it had actually built an atomic weapon.

REUTERS LL RN1246