Arabs predict guns won't be silent long in Lebanon

BEIRUT, Aug 15 (Reuters) Arab commentators welcomed the fragile calm between Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas today but said they feared a UN-brokered truce would not keep the guns silent for long.

''The war in Lebanon may stop, but I doubt it, for never in history has Israel respected a single resolution issued by the Security Council,'' wrote columnist Salah Montassir in Egypt's government daily al-Ahram.

Ground clashes, Israeli air strikes and Hizbollah rocket fire ceased yesterday as a ''cessation of hostilities'' demanded by UN resolution 1701 came into effect.

Some commentators complained the resolution adopted on Friday favoured Israel by implicitly allowing it to take ''defensive'' actions against Hizbollah, while also letting the Shi'ite Muslim guerrilla group emerge defiant from the war -- an unhappy compromise they predict is doomed to collapse.

''The conflict has only reinforced the position of the militia and weakened that of the Lebanese government,'' wrote independent Moroccan newspaper Aujourd'hui Le Maroc.

''Despite this peace agreement, just one spark would be enough to reignite the whole region. So there's reason to be sceptical.'' Writing in Qatar's Al-Watan newspaper, Hossam Dhowy saw the UN resolution as part of Washington's grand plan to create a ''new'' WAsia. The United States is Israel's main backer.

''This resolution was an expensive gift for Israel from America and France via the UN,'' he wrote. ''It gives Israel permission to play with Lebanon and attack it again.'' HIZBOLLAH VICTORY? The war killed more than 1,100 people in Lebanon, displaced over 900,000 and devastated its infrastructure. Yet Hizbollah declared victory after continuing to fire rockets at Israel and killing more than 150 Israeli soldiers and civilians.

''This is the first time the Arabs have actually fought well and hard and won. And imparted losses on the Israelis -- militarily and economically, morally and politically,'' columnist Badrya Darwish wrote on the front page of the Kuwait Times.

''It's true the losses in Lebanon were great. But Hizbollah ... will continue to be a part of the Lebanese government and are now heroes in the Arab world.'' Some predicted that by standing up to Israel's superior firepower for 34 days, Hizbollah would inspire groups around the region to take up arms.

''The Palestinian resistance will be inspired and will grow more convinced that resistance is the best path to confront Israel,'' Saudi Arabia's Al-Jazirah newspaper said.

Hizbollah attacks were instrumental in ending Israel's 22-year occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000, and many Arabs say that helped inspire the Palestinian uprising the same year.

''The world sees that Israel has not attained goals it set for itself ... there will surely be humiliated Israeli commanders itching for a chance to resume the destruction,'' Saudi Arabia's Arab News said.

Whoever won the Lebanon battle, most Arab commentators predict the war is far from over.

''After resolution 1701 ... a new stage in the conflict, a more ferocious and severe one, has just started,'' wrote Mohammad al-Saeed Idrees in the UAE's al-Khaleej newspaper.

REUTERS SP RAI2227