Wrong weather forecast: Don't blame it on Weatherman: Sibal

New Delhi, July 31 (UNI) If a weather forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) goes awry, do not blame it on the Weatherman.

In fact, the government contends that there is no such thing as an ''incorrect weather forecast...and there is no need to take action against those manning the weather forecast division''.

In a written reply in the Rajya Sabha, Science&Technology and Earth Sciences Minister Kapil Sibal today said it was incorrect to say that the weather forecasts by the IMD were incorrect. ''Actually there is no such thing as an incorrect weather forecast,'' he reasoned out.

Assuring that the IMD would have a relatively modern and well-equipped forecastijng system by the end of 2008, Mr Sibal said every forecast had a margin of error and the endeavour of scientists was always to reduce this margin through use of technology.

''Weather forecasts are made on the basis of meteorological observations and using these observations in a suitable model. The accuracy of the forecast or the margin of error depends on whow dense the observational network is and how well suited the model in use is for the area for which the weather forecast is made,'' he said.

The problem confronting the IMD was paucity of investment in the area of instrumentation ''to make the observation network dense'', the minister said, adding that significant R&D efforts were also lacking in developing a suitable model for the weather systems in the region.

''It is a fact that in our region, meso-scale systems often develop suddenly and display erratic behaviour as compared to the extra-tropical regions, which are characterised by frontal type of weather systems displaying systematic development and movement.

Hence weather forecasting in our country is different and more difficult,'' the minister contended.

Among the measures taken to improve the situation, Mr Sibal listed the creation of the Ministry of Earth Sciences with an endeavour to bring ocean and atmospheric observations together and also generate better weather forecast.

He said the government had plans to significantly improve density observational network and technologically upgrade it through installation of equipment such as Doppler Weather Radar, automatic rain gauges and wing profilers.

A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has also been signed with METEO France (French Meteorological Agency) to jointly work on modelling and strengthening the IT infrastructure to improve the capabilities of the IMD.

''...it is clear that persons manning the weather forecast division are not at fault and there is no need to take action against them,'' said the minister.

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