Lula's lead narrowing in Brazil election race-poll

SAO PAULO, Brazil, July 26 (Reuters) President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's lead over his main rival in Brazil's presidential race has further narrowed and the October election could go to a runoff, a poll showed.

The survey by polling firm Ibope, parts of which were published on a prominent local political blog called ''Blog do Noblat,'' showed Lula with 41 percent in the first round, against 30 percent for opposition candidate Geraldo Alckmin.

The poll, to be aired in full later on Tuesday by Globo TV on its main newscast, also showed Lula might not get the absolute majority he would need to avoid a second round run-off in his quest for a second four-year term.

Ibope said it would only confirm the poll results after they appeared on television, but government officials moved swiftly to play down the results.

''The government is well aware that we're in an initial phase of the campaign,'' Dilma Rousseff, Lula's chief of staff, told reporters in Brasilia when asked about the survey. ''So it's too early to jump to any conclusions about the poll results.'' The last Ibope poll on June 13 predicted a first-round victory for Lula, giving him 48 percent of votes and 19 percent for former Sao Paulo state governor Alckmin, of the opposition Brazilian Social Democracy Party.

When excluding undecided responses, which serve as a proxy for blank and null votes, Lula would have attained the absolute majority needed to avoid a runoff.

The new Ibope survey is the fourth poll this month to show Lula's lead narrowing. But the polls have also shown that the president remains the clear favorite, largely because of his popularity among the poor.

Lula, Brazil's first working class president, has managed to distance himself from a corruption scandal last year that involved several high-ranking members of his Workers' Party. He has also been helped by an improving economy and a large increase in the minimum wage.

The Alckmin camp is betting that his poll numbers will grow even more when television campaigning starts on Aug. 15.

Because the coalition backing Alckmin has more seats in Congress, Alckmin will have about 30 percent more free air time than Lula.

Reuters SK VP0430