S Africa sees AIDS epidemic 'stabilising'

JOHANNESBURG, July 22 (Reuters) South Africa's HIV/AIDS epidemic appears to be stabilising with new data showing only a marginal increase in new infections over the last year, the Department of Health said.

A national survey of pregnant women visiting ante-natal clinics showed an infection rate of 30.2 percent compared with 29.5 percent in a similar study done in 2004.

Extrapolating from these results, the department said it estimated about 5.4 million of South Africa's 45 million people were HIV positive -- a decrease from earlier projections, some of which had put the number as high as 6 million.

The department said the slow rate of increase was good news.

''This is not unusual for a stabilising epidemic,'' a department statement said. ''(It) continues to confirm the expectation ... that South Africa will begin to see a decline in the prevalence profile.'' Some health experts have drawn more pessimistic conclusions, saying the flattening out of South Africa's HIV prevalence rates means that new infections are in fact keeping pace with rising numbers of AIDS deaths in the country.

Sub-Saharan Africa's AIDS epidemic has been fueled primarily by heterosexual sex. Epidemiologists say the disease moved quickly in part due to high rates of poverty and migrant labour, which helped to spread the virus in the region.

South Africa is at the centre of Africa's HIV/AIDS pandemic and has one of the largest AIDS caseloads in the world. National HIV prevalence among pregnant women rose sharply during the 1990s, going from 0.7 per cent in 1990 to 22.8 per cent in 1998.

The 2005 study said HIV prevalence among teenagers was estimated at 15.9 per cent against 16.1 per cent in 2004. It said that while this dip was not statistically significant, this could indicate that fewer teen-agers were becoming infected.

''The studies conducted over the year have begun to show that intervention programmes which emphasise prevention have a very important place in moderating HIV prevalence,'' the department study said.

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