Key to Mumbai blasts may lie close to home: experts

JAKARTA, July 16: The Mumbai bombings reveal the extent to which India now faces a home-grown threat and confirms the transition of al Qaeda into a global franchise that inspires, but does not direct, attacks around the world.

Analysts say the complex operation -- seven time bombs went off just minutes apart on commuter trains at the height of the evening rush hour -- could not have been carried out by outsiders alone. At least 179 people were killed, and many more injured.

''Only a terrorist group with local knowledge can operate and strike with such accuracy and precision,'' wrote Singapore-based analyst Rohan Gunaratna in an assessment of the blast. ''The perpetrators had either lived in Mumbai or are citizens of Mumbai.'' Gunaratna, head of the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, said by telephone it was likely that Pakistani militants, inspired by al Qaeda, had been behind the attack but with crucial help inside India. ''These groups have developed very solid local infrastructure.'' Prime Minister Manmohan Singh blamed Pakistan for directing the attack, an accusation India's neighbour rejects, and said any peace process between the two countries was now at risk.

HOVERING SHADOW

The shadow of Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda, which secured its grip on Western consciousness with the September 11 attacks, has nonetheless hovered over the Mumbai blasts.

Late last week, Indian authorities said they were checking a claim from a self-described al Qaeda member that the group had formed a chapter in Kashmir.

Indian press reports said a man had called a local news agency to laud those behind the Mumbai bombings. Officials were publicly sceptical of the claim, which remains unverified.

Peter Bergen, a security analyst who has followed al Qaeda for years, says Pakistani militants had no need of support or expertise from bin Laden or his immediate circle.

''These groups have the motive and capability to do this,'' he said in an e-mail from New York.

Such an assessment squares with the general sense advanced by a number of analysts that al Qaeda, its demise as a militant cell long promised by U S officials, has morphed from a disciplined cadre into a catch-all movement.

Some have even called it more of an ''idea'' than a militant cell, with bin Laden now largely a figurehead.

Yet, the danger of spin-offs remains real, analysts say, even in countries that have long seen themselves as immune to a domestic threat.

REUTERS