EU disease agency warns of "seasonal" bird flu

BRUSSELS, July 8 (Reuters) Europeans should get used to a seasonal pattern of bird flu affecting poultry as the lethal H5N1 strain of the disease is highly likely to reappear in the near future, a senior EU health official has said.

Although H5N1 bird flu remains primarily an animal virus and poorly adapted to humans, it poses enough of a threat to human health that the EU can not afford to let up its guard because more outbreaks in birds were almost guaranteed, she said yesterday.

''Even if we had a major outbreak on H5N1 in poultry, the risk for EU citizens would still be low,'' Zsuzsanna Jakab, director of the Stockholm-based European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), told a news briefing.

''It may be a low-level threat but one that we must take very seriously. In birds, it has peaked for now but it is very likely it will come back,'' she said. ''We have to get used to a seasonal pattern -- it's quite likely it will reappear in Europe.'' Occasional cases are still popping up in the EU although with far less regularity than during the January-March period.

Yesterday, Spain's Agriculture Ministry confirmed the country's first case of H5N1 bird flu. And in mid-June, Hungary detected the disease strain in poultry.

Experts fear the disease may change into a form that can be easily transmitted among humans, sweeping the world and killing millions within weeks or months.

Since 2003, it has spread rapidly from Asia to Europe and Africa, taking 131 human lives among 229 cases in 10 countries.

Some 50 countries worldwide have reported cases in animals.

So far, bird flu has only been transmitted to humans who were in close contact with infected live birds and no sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus has occurred.

''Any outbreak in birds carries a risk of humans getting infected,'' Jakab said. ''The more human exposure to H5N1 around the bird, the more opportunity there is for the virus to mutate.

We have to prevent every human case.'' EU cases of H5N1 in wild birds and domestic poultry peaked in early 2006 and the European Commission, the EU executive, had warned of more outbreaks as the spring migration neared and new bird species arrived from Africa.

This largely failed to happen but all eyes will now be on the months ahead, when large-scale bird movements are likely to occur again.

''The much-feared explosion of cases failed to take place,'' said Robert Madelin, director-general of the Commission's health and consumer protection department.

''We have stepped up biosecurity measures since last autumn,'' he told the briefing. ''A migratory season is now known to be a risk factor. We will be extremely vigilant (in the autumn) and hope to avoid a multiplication of cases.'' REUTERS MA HS0832