IMD downgrades monsoon rain prediction from 93 to 92 per cent

New Delhi, July 1 (UNI) The Indian Meteorological Department has revised its rainfall prediction for the entire country this monsoon, saying it is likely to be 92 per cent, plus/minus four per cent, of the Long Period Average.

On April 24, IMD had issued the first stage forecast for this year's Southwest monsoon season rainfall (June-September) for the whole country. And according to its operational Long Range Forecast for the entire season, the rainfall was likely to be 93 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus/minus five per cent.

In its fresh update it predicted that rainfall in the country this season was likely to be 92 per cent, plus/minus four per cent, of the LPA.

As much as 97 per cent rain of LPA was forecast for the South Peninsula, Northeast region came next with 94 per cent, followed by Northwest region with 91 per cent while Central region could have 90 per cent, IMD said here. All these predictions could have error of plus/minus eight per cent.

Rain across the country in the month of July was likely to be 97 per cent, plus/minus nine per cent, of its LPA.

Earlier estimates had suggested there was 22 per cent probability that rainfall over the country could be deficient (below 90 per cent of LPA).

Using an indigenously developed statistical model, IMD had predicted that monsoon onset over Kerala would take place on May 30 with a model error of three days. However, monsoon onset over Kerala was on May 26, six days earlier than its normal date.

Monsoon was very active during the first week of June. By May 31, it had covered parts of Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Karnataka, parts of Telengana and Northeastern parts of India. By June 6, it covered parts of Gujarat, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Jharkhand and Bihar.

After that there was a prolonged hiatus in advancement of monsoon for about 17 days. On June 23, monsoon revived and advanced further into some more parts of Gujarat region, remaining parts of Madhya Maharashtra, entire Marathawada and some more parts of Telangana and Chhattisgarh.

By June 29, it covered some more parts of Gujarat; remaining parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and East Uttar Pradesh, some parts of West Uttar Pradesh, many parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Himachal Pradesh and most parts of Jammu and Kashmir.

By June 30, the Southwest monsoon further advanced into remaining parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, some more parts of West Uttar Pradesh, remaining parts of Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir and some parts of Punjab and Haryana (including Chandigarh).

At present, the Northern Limit of Monsoon passed through Udaipur, Gwalior, Barielly, Dehradun, Ambala and Amritsar.

Since the onset of Southwest monsoon over Kerala, the realised rainfall over the country as a whole till June 28, was deficient by eight per cent.

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