Fresh bout of succession fever hits UK's Blair

LONDON, June 9 (Reuters) Speculation about the timing of Tony Blair's exit from office reached new heights as a senior minister said he expected the British prime minister to go ''well before the next election''.

Former foreign secretary Jack Straw also backed finance minister Gordon Brown as the sole candidate to succeed Blair, warning off fellow ministers who may want to challenge Brown.

''Everybody knows that Tony will go, go well before the next election,'' Straw told The Spectator magazine, a phrase read by the media to suggest an earlier exit to that indicated by Blair.

Blair said yesterday in 2004 he would not stand in the next election expected in 2009 but he vowed to serve a full fourth term.

Since then, his sliding popularity -- partly due to anger over the Iraq war and its aftermath -- and damaging headlines over government sleaze and incompetence have sparked growing calls from some in his Labour Party for him to go sooner.

Blair was recently forced to guarantee his successor ''ample time'' to settle in before a poll as an immigration scandal and the admission of an affair by his deputy dogged his every move.

Many Labour parliamentarians now expect Blair to hand over the Labour leadership mid-next year after a decade in the job.

Ultra Blair loyalists, however, suggest he may stay until 2008.

TOO LATE TO CHALLENGE BROWN? Blair recently unequivocally backed Brown as his heir after years of on-off acrimony over the leadership and doubts in the Brown camp over whether their man would ever fulfill his dream.

But the election of the young, telegenic David Cameron as leader of the opposition Conservative Party six months ago has sparked worries in Labour that it needs a fresher-faced leader than Brown, a dour Scot not known for his charisma.

The Conservatives have a mountain to climb to unseat Labour but recent opinion polls show them out in front.

Polls also show Brown would be less popular than Blair -- once a formidable electoral asset -- in a contest with Cameron.

Straw, recently demoted to leader of the government in parliament's lower house, said he would be ''astonished'' if anyone stood against Brown and that he deserved the post.

Analysts agree that potential rivals are too politically astute to stand against him unless they can be assured of victory and their chances, as things stand, look slim.

Home Secretary John Reid and Education Minister Alan Johnson and possibly Straw are tipped as potential challengers. There may also be a challenge from a leftwing Labour lawmaker.

''There is a real question about whether Gordon Brown is the best person to take on and beat Cameron,'' said Philip Cowley of Nottingham University. ''But I think most of them (Labour lawmakers) think it's a done deal, they think it's too late.'' But a contest-free coronation of Brown would play badly with the public, Cowley added.

Senior Labour figures are instead jockeying for the post of deputy leader once John Prescott vacates the job. He has been humiliated recently after he admitted an extramarital affair.

But Blair knows a contest for deputy leader could prompt calls for a simultaneous election for his job.

REUTERS CH HS0958