brutal force or new style?

BAGHDAD, June 9 (Reuters) Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's successor may be a local figure with close ties to Osama bin Laden, who focuses attacks more on US and Iraqi troops and less on brutal beheadings and random suicide bombings.

The Jordanian militant led a high profile campaign of videotaped executions and bombings that often targeted civilians and killed thousands.

But Abdel Bari Atwan, an al Qaeda expert who has interviewed Osama bin Laden, said he expects a less extreme Iraqi figure named Abdel Rahman al-Iraqi to take over from Zarqawi, who was killed in a US air strike on Wednesday.

''Zarqawi was a loose cannon who gave al Qaeda in Iraq a bad name with gruesome beheadings. Bin Laden had put al-Iraqi in place because he thought it would be wiser to have an Iraqi to help forge ties with others groups,'' said Atwan from London.

''Al-Iraqi is more sophisticated than Zarqawi and he spent time with bin Laden in Afghanistan. He will be lower profile but the suicide bombings are expected to continue because he is an extremist. But I think he will focus on US and Iraqi forces.'' Al Qaeda in Iraq issued a statement yesterday signed by Iraqi in which he promised bin Laden that the group would keep up the campaign of violence. The statement described al-Iraqi as the group's deputy leader.

IRAQI OR EGYPTIAN SUCCESSOR? Major General William Caldwell, the chief US military spokesman, said an Egyptian militant he identified as Abu Masari, who trained in Afghanistan and established the first al Qaeda cell in Baghdad, may succeed Zarqawi.

Although Saudi-born Osama bin Laden is described as al Qaeda's global leader, he is also seen mainly as an inspiration for a highly decentralised organisation with militant supporters from across the Arab world.

Atwan said Zarqawi capitalised on that loose structure and that may have prompted bin Laden to step in and set up his close associate al-Iraqi to take over.

''Usually the senior al Qaeda leaders have a meeting in Afghanistan and choose representatives for Iraq or other countries,'' said Atwan. ''Zarqawi hijacked al-Qaeda in Iraq and strayed and went over the edge.'' Many of Zarqawi's followers were Iraqis but some analysts say choosing a native to replace someone US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld described as the man with most blood on his hands in the world could backfire.

''If they choose a foreigner to head al Qaeda it would be easier for him to kill many people brutally because he will not be one of their own and cause resentment,'' said Hazim al-Nuaimy, a professor at Baghdad's Mustansiriya University.

''On the other hand, choosing an Iraqi would mean having a leader that knows the terrain and how to build ties with tribes that could be a threat to al Qaeda if they turn against it.'' Al Qaeda was said to have formed an alliance of convenience with Saddam Hussein loyalists who provided intelligence and logistics, but the ties weakened because Zarqawi's brutal methods alienated them.

''Al-Iraqi is far more disciplined and is likely to follow Bin Laden's line. He may improve ties between al Qaeda and other militant and insurgent groups,'' said Atwan, referring to a large and murky network of fighters.

Nuaimy still predicts carnage, no matter who replaces Zarqawi.

''Whoever is the most the most brutal will be theman who climbs to the top of al Qaeda,'' he said.

''Zarqawi acted like he was trying out for a Hollywood film.

He loved to be in the limelight. The new man may be less high profile but any al Qaeda leader in Iraq will be brutal.'' REUTERS SHR BST1713