Bhutto, Sharif pact needles Pakistan government

ISLAMABAD, May 15 (Reuters) - Pakistani officials today derided a pact on democracy signed by two exiled former premiers, but analysts reckoned Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif hit a nerve in the military-backed government as it girds for polls in 2007.

The opposition ''charter for democracy'' unveiled in London, comes as President Pervez Musharraf's popularity has, by his own admission, hit a low in what has been a roller-coaster ride since the army ousted Sharif in a bloodless coup over six years ago.

''This so-called charter is of no use for Pakistan and the people of Pakistan,'' Information Minister Mohammed Ali Durrani told Reuters.

''It is the expression of their desire to grab power and nothing else,'' the government spokesman added.

Analysts said the pact could not be dismissed out of hand.

''This charter may not pose a threat to Musharraf immediately, but it can build pressure on him in future if it works,'' Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Lahore-based political commentator, said.

''It is a significant development that two major political parties are joining hands but it is yet to be seen how they translate this charter into action.'' Most people believe that, with Sharif and Bhutto outside the country, elections due at the end of 2007 will return national and provincial assemblies which will vote Musharraf in again.

Musharraf needs only a simple majority for his own re-election. But he will need a two-thirds majority to change the constitution, as he did in 2003 to obtain sweeping powers and the right to retain his role as army chief until the 2007.

Whether the general will take off his uniform after 2007 is regarded as a critical question, especially given a perceived loss of support due to his alliance with the United States.

Opposition Islamist parties used the furore over the Danish cartoons caricaturing the Prophet Mohammed to attack Musharraf, and Pakistanis believe the general, despite his efforts to please, has lost some support from the United States.

If Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League and Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples' Party were to fight the election together they could pose a greater threat -- but how big a threat is hard to fathom.

''The only way we can tell is if there are free, fair and transparent elections,'' said Samina Ahmed, head of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group in Pakistan.

STARK CHOICES Allegations of rigging have dogged Pakistani elections in the past, but the United States, a crucial ally of Musharraf because of the war on terrorism, has called on the government to ensure that voting is as clean as possible next time.

''Like it or not, 2007 is going to decide whether to support democratic transition or military rule,'' Ahmed said.

Since gaining independence and splitting from India in 1947, Pakistan's democracy has repeatedly faltered, and the military has led the country for more than half of its 59 years.

At the core of Sharif-Bhutto charter was an agreement to freeze the military out of Pakistan's politics, to establish a clear chain of command over nuclear weapons, and to ensure the independence of the judiciary.

Analysts however say Bhutto and Sharif both used intelligence agencies and the courts to undermine each other when they were in power during the 1990s.

Bhutto, who lives in self-exile and faces graft charges both at home and abroad, and Sharif, who agreed to go into exile rather than serve a life sentence, are regarded as Pakistan's most charismatic politicians.

Musharraf regards them both as corrupt politicians responsible for bringing Pakistan to the brink of bankruptcy in the late 1990s.

Musharraf argues that he is building a sustainable democracy from the grassroots and he has eradicated corruption at the highest levels, but critics say the army chief's route to democracy seems to lead back to him retaining the presidency.

REUTERS SY VC2039