What after election in Thailand?

BANGKOK, Mar 30: A political mess is the only certain outcome of Thailand's snap April 2 election, which Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra had hoped would scupper a campaign to oust him, opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said today.

With the three main opposition parties boycotting the poll, up to 30 of parliament's 500 seats would remain empty, Abhisit said, making it unconstitutional for Thaksin's unopposed Thai Rak Thai party to form a government.

The ensuing confusion could eventually end up before the Constitutional Court, meaning no quick fix to a seven-month political crisis that has hit the stock market and economic forecasts, the Democrat party chief told Reuters in an interview.

''All it shows is that there are still many problems ahead even after April 2nd, and Thaksin's legitimacy will still be questioned,'' said the 41-year-old, who became head of Thailand's oldest party after a crushing election defeat in February 2005.

Based on the results of that poll, in which Thaksin won 377 seats in parliament, some analysts are predicting a far greater constitutional vacuum, with as many as 60 seats left empty.

Thai law says that in uncontested seats, candidates must still win a minimum of 20 percent of the total eligible vote, and that all 500 parliamentary seats must be filled to make a government.

''The electoral commission will first have to deal with that. Are they going to announce there are only maybe 470, 480 MPs? Or are they going to keep holding elections till those seats are filled? We don't know,'' Abhisit said.

Street campaigners have kept up daily protests against Thaksin, whom they accuse of cronyism and abuse of power, but the Democrats have been reluctant to join in, urging Thais instead to register disapproval by ticking the ''abstain'' box on ballots.

As for post-election strategy, Eton and Oxford-educated Abhisit appears -- like many in Thailand -- to be adopting a ''wait and see'' approach.

''We'll watch for irregularities and fraud and then look at the various movements made by the Electoral Commission, by the government or even possibly the Constitution Court,'' he said.

However, in a country with a long and relatively recent history of military coups, Abhisit said he was reassured all sides appeared to be eschewing street violence -- the one factor that could trigger the army to wade in.

''The country has shown a much greater degree of maturity from what we have seen in the last two months. All sides have been keen to ensure there's no violence,'' he said.

''I think that's a good sign, although of course as situations become tense, there's always a danger. But I think we should admire and give credit to all sides -- demonstrators, police and the military.''

REUTERS