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LONDON, Mar 17 (Reuters) The dollar slipped to a seven-week low against the euro and a two-week low versus the yen on Friday, weighed down by a growing view that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening campaign could be nearing an end.
Mixed U.S. data, including softer than forecast February core consumer prices on Thursday, has dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike rates to 5 per cent or more from the current 4.50 per cent.
Fed funds futures have fully priced in a rate rise to 4.75 per cent at the Fed's policy meeting later this month, but the market has been lowering the odds of further hikes in May and beyond after the run of mixed U.S. economic data.
''There has been a re-evaluation of people's expectations as to where the U.S. rates can ultimately end up,'' said Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York. ''I think we will continue to see dollar weakness.'' By 1227 GMT (1757 IST), the euro was buying $1.2178, broadly steady on the day and just below a seven-week high of $1.2194 hit earlier in the session. Some traders said the euro could challenge the $1.2200 level in the near term.
''Markets are cautious on keeping dollar-long positions in the run up to the next FOMC meeting (on March 27-28) and given that next week we have no major data releases from the United States,'' said Armin Mekelburg, currency strategist at HVB in Munich.
The dollar index, a trade-weighted measure of the dollar's value against six major currencies, slid to 88.96 on Friday, its lowest since Feb. 1.
The euro was little moved on news that euro zone industrial production was flat on the month in January against forecasts for a small rise. December's figures were revised up however.
The yen rose to a two-week high against the dollar to 116.15 yen. The Japanese currency was also around half a per cent firmer versus the euro at 141.50, recovering from Thursday's five-week low of 142.50.
The yen was boosted by modest appreciation in the Chinese yuan on Friday, which has now gained more than 1 per cent since the July revaluation.
RATE UNCERTAINTY U.S. industrial production data for January at 1415 GMT (1945 IST) and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey for March at 1445 GMT (2015 IST) will give further clues on when U.S. monetary tightening will end.
Both are forecast to show an improvement on the previous period. But analysts said that upbeat readings of Friday's U.S.
data would not necessarily help to pick the dollar up near-term.
''Since sentiment is bad for the dollar I'm not sure if the dollar can rally on good data,'' said Tohru Sasaki, chief forex strategist at JP Morgan Chase Bank in Tokyo.
Elsewhere, the Swedish crown rose to a one-month high versus the euro and a six-week high versus the dollar, boosted by growing expectations of continued rate hikes.
The crown's rally was sparked on Thursday by better than forecast jobs data and comments from the deputy central bank governor that monetary policy was ''very expansionary''.
The Swiss franc fell to a two-year low versus the euro, amid general euro strength. Investors also sold the franc after the Swiss National Bank raised interest rates to 1.25 per cent as expected on Thursday.
Swiss rates are forecast to rise to 2 per cent by year-end, and the European Central Bank is expected to tighten to at least 3.00 per cent, leaving the euro zone with a firm yield advantage over Switzerland.
Bank of New York's Derrick noted however the recent fall in high-yielding currencies such as the New Zealand dollar and said markets could become less focused on rate differentials.
''If last year was characterised by a rush towards yield, I think what we are seeing this year is increasingly a retreat from risk and from higher yielding currencies,'' he said.
The New Zealand dollar, which benefits from rates of 7.25 per cent, was down on the day and near a 20-month low versus the U.S. currency. The Australian dollar, with official rates of 5.5 percent was also around 0.7 per cent weaker versus the greenback on the day.
REUTERS SD RN2014


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