No security threat in N.Korea missile test-analysts

Seoul, Mar 9: North Korea's test-firing of two short-range missiles was more about checking performance than rattling sabres during a stalemate in talks on ending Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, analysts said today (Mar 9, 2006).

The White House confirmed reports North Korea had fired the missiles yesterday, and US officials said they proved the country's nuclear programmes posed a threat to the region.

But analysts said the tests did not constitute a major threat to stability and if Pyongyang had wanted to send a strong signal it could have wheeled out far bigger missiles.

The tests came not long after a rare meeting between US and North Korean officials in New York, where they discussed a US crackdown on Pyongyang's assets, which the North wants ended before it will return to six-country nuclear talks.

North Korea fired the two short-range missiles from its east coast and they probably dropped into sea, about 100 km away, the South Korean daily JoongAng Ilbo reported today, citing a government source.

Initial reports said the tests were over a shorter distance elsewhere and just on land. A senior Bush administration official said the two missiles did not leave North Korean territory.

The missiles had a range of about 120 km and were similar to a missile the North test-fired in May 2005. That was a modified Soviet surface-to-surface missile, the newspaper said.

''The government sees this as testing to boost missile performance,'' the source was quoted as saying. Japan played down the tests, saying they did not pose a threat to its security.

Despite the tests, South Korea, which is within range of the missiles, let North Korean ships into harbour to load fertiliser aid to help the North's spring planting.

Analysts said the North ran periodic tests of its shorter range missiles and the greatest threat to regional stability was its nascent arsenal of intermediate- and long-range ballistic missiles, which might eventually be used for nuclear weapons.

WHY DIDN'T THEY GO BALLISTIC?

''If the North Koreans really wanted to send a signal, why not do a ballistic missile test?'' Daniel Pinkston, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California, said by telephone. In Washington on Tuesday, the head of the US military in South Korea told a Senate hearing North Korea was ready to deploy ballistic missiles that could reach Alaska.

Proliferation experts believe North Korea is still some time away from building a nuclear warhead small enough to be mounted on a missile. The accuracy of its mid-range missiles was also suspect while its long-range missiles are believed to be in development and not yet launched.

''We attach significance to it (the test) because it has the words 'North Korea' and 'missile','' Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS think tank based in Hawaii, said by telephone.

''The North Koreans would be happy for us to attach a political message but I am not sure that was their intention.'' Cossa did not think the test was intended as North Korean sabre-rattling to coincide with the talks between US Treasury officials and senior North Korean diplomat Ri Gun over Washington's suspicions about North Korean illicit activities such as counterfeiting and drug trafficking.

''Both sides want to demonstrate that they are not the problem,'' Cossa said.

Analysts said the crackdown talks were not likely to lead to any breakthrough but they could provide political cover that would allow North Korea to return to the stalled discussions among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States.

Ri told South Korea's Hankyoreh newspaper he would like to see the United States and North Korea set up a separate body to discuss Washington's suspicions.

''We can exchange intelligence on financial crimes and devise measures,'' Ri was quoted as saying.

REUTERS

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