Kerala Election 2026 Predictions: Who Will Win God's Own Country? Mathrubhumi Pre-Poll Survey Out

With the Kerala Assembly election drawing closer, a pre-poll survey conducted by Mathrubhumi has projected an extremely tight contest between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF), suggesting that the final outcome could hinge on a handful of constituencies across the state.

According to the survey findings, neither of the two major alliances appears to be comfortably crossing the halfway mark of 71 seats in the 140-member Kerala Assembly at present. The LDF is projected to win around 66 seats, while the UDF is expected to secure close to 62 seats. With the margin between the two fronts remaining narrow, the survey identifies nearly 12 constituencies as highly contested battlegrounds that could ultimately determine who forms the next government.

Although the ruling LDF retains a slight advantage in the overall seat projection, the broader trend indicates a surge in support for the opposition alliance. The survey suggests that the LDF could face a significant setback compared to its current position in the Assembly, potentially losing between 32 and 36 seats. On the other hand, the UDF is projected to make notable gains, with its seat tally expected to increase by as many as 20 seats. The data points to a visible swing in favour of the opposition, even though the race remains too close to call.

Region-wise voting patterns reveal clear variations in political preferences across Kerala. In North Kerala, the LDF appears to have a marginal edge, with projections indicating 28 seats for the Left alliance compared to 26 for the UDF. However, the picture changes in Central Kerala, where the UDF is expected to dominate with around 27 seats, leaving the LDF with approximately 21 seats in the region.

In South Kerala, the ruling alliance is again projected to hold an advantage. The survey estimates that the LDF could win around 20 seats in the region, while the UDF may secure about 15 seats. These regional trends highlight how the electoral battle is unfolding differently across various parts of the state.

The survey also examined voter preferences for the chief ministerial post, revealing an almost neck-and-neck contest between incumbent Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and Leader of the Opposition V. D. Satheesan. The poll indicates that Vijayan enjoys the support of about 27.85 percent of respondents, while Satheesan is close behind with 27.77 percent support, reflecting the intense competition between the two leaders.

Other prominent political figures also feature in the leadership preference list. Senior LDF leader K. K. Shailaja secured around 12.1 percent support, while UDF veteran Ramesh Chennithala received nearly 12.06 percent. Congress MP Shashi Tharoor also continues to remain a notable name in the leadership discussion among respondents.

One of the key takeaways from the survey is the strong influence of individual MLA popularity in shaping electoral outcomes. The report suggests that highly popular legislators are helping their respective alliances retain certain seats despite broader political swings.

Among LDF leaders, Tourism Minister P. A. Muhammad Riyas reportedly enjoys approval ratings exceeding 76 percent, while Azhikode MLA K. V. Sumesh has recorded popularity levels above 77 percent in his constituency. Their strong personal connect with voters is seen as a factor helping the ruling alliance remain competitive in some regions.

Similarly, within the UDF camp, leaders such as Chennithala and Satheesan have registered high approval ratings among voters. Chennithala reportedly enjoys approval levels above 78 percent, while Satheesan commands around 70 percent support in his constituency, strengthening the opposition's overall prospects.

The survey also looked at the presence of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the state's political landscape. While the BJP-led alliance is emerging as a strong runner-up in certain constituencies, it is not currently projected to have a decisive advantage in any particular seat.

For instance, in Nemom, the LDF is estimated to have about 41 percent vote share compared to the NDA's nearly 40 percent, indicating a closely fought contest. In Kazhakootam as well, the NDA is reported to have secured a vote share of nearly 36 percent, suggesting a growing presence in select pockets of the state.

The survey findings are based on samples collected between February 16 and February 26, 2026. Analysts note that the projections do not account for developments that occurred after the survey period, including political controversies, candidate announcements or alliance-level changes, all of which could still influence voter sentiment before polling day.